It's quite suspicious given Putin's tendency to murder/assassinate people with poisons and 11th floor jumps, especially given the recent failure in the space program. I'm not sure why we're not supposed to be suspicious of any high profile person dying in Russia given Putin's penchant to have people killed or imprisoned when they embarrass him. No idea how Navalny isn't dead yet unless Putin just wants to break him in Russian prison.
A historian and renowned Russia expert in my country (Estonia) commented that this was probably bad timing for Putin. Now, as a martyr, Navalnyi is much more of a disturbance to Putin's regimen than he would have been as an isolated opposition leader serving a 19-year prison sentence, which rendered him not a direct threat to Putin. Like the expert put it: as a political prisoner, Navalnyi was already simply forgotten by many. [1]
Somehow this got me flipping through a book by Anna Politkovskaya, Russian journalist extraordinaire who covered the Second Chechen War and was shot dead in Moscow in 2006, on the birthday of Putin. [2]
I want to think that the age of massive online information does make at least a slight difference as to how much of the reasons behind events like these see the light of day eventually. Rest in peace, Alexei Navalnyi.
1: https://news.err.ee/1609255851/historian-navalny-s-death-wil... (Interestingly, the paragraph on Navalnyi being more of a disturbance now, after being declared dead, was not included in the English version of this news story. This is quite surprising, since ERR is actually a very well balanced source of news. All in all, that story includes interesting takes on Navalny as a politician, too, by another highly respeced Russia expert from Estonia.)
What use is Navalny being alive to Putin?
I’m only casually familiar with the situation, but my ignorance analysis is that Putin’s underlying message is “don’t F with me”. Navalny alive and in prison or dead that message seems to ring clear. Just curious.
Navalny was far from a saint, but his death is still a Kremlin job by any measure, and I suspect will only accelerate Putin's decline, as the state of Russian affairs continues to degrade.
As far as I know this is kind of the strategy of Russian propaganda. I would not be surprised if killing Navalny was done purposely shortly after the Tucker interview.
For a MAGA follower (if they ever hear about it and even know who Navalny is) such combinations induce a cognitive dissonance, which translates either into dispair or into open support of Putin after he killed his major critic, either way it would be a win. And the other side of US politics is in dispair wittnessing how the MAGA crowd handles this, which (from Putins point of view) hopefully makes people stresses enough about politics that they just don't want to hear it anymore.
This idea of confusion and despair is how he managed to get the Russians to stay so apolitical after a short optimistic phase in the 90s. Better not think about it — this is the message.
Why does it not make sense for Putin to poison Navalny? He his regime has a history of poisoning opponents and dissidents. Putin clearly doesn't like political opposition that is gaining a bit too much steam.
Whether it's rational from a non-Putin perspective doesn't matter; it fits the behaviour we know from Putin. But why would an anti-Putin oligarch poison Putin's opponents for him?
Why is irrelevant when he was in russian prison in a faraway region and only the official apparatus with putin at the top had the means to kill him.
Why would they kill him? Who knows, there's spite, posturing, all the other mafia shit.
Also why did you put Navalnys wife in quotations?
Note: I'm not giving any judgement on whether Navalny was a good or bad person, liberal or nationalist. Just that he was a political prisoner killed by a brutal autocrat.
You're right that Putin has had people murdered in far more conspicuous fashion before, and there's now the big risk of Magnitsky sanctions. It's hard to say whether the blowback and sanctions from an assassination would be worse from an 'unfortunate accident' or someone dying suddenly and inexplicably in a manner very similar to a nerve agent that Russia exclusively uses.
It seems like for them to get away with the Novichok poisoning they should've chosen to assassinate Navalny locally so they're be little chance of getting the victim to a neutral location for treatment or autopsy.
That's just my speculation, ultimately this whole situation could be explained by malice and incompetence.
It seems stupid, yes. However he would've been hunted the remainder of his life and likely assassinated, regardless. He may have hoped too that by sacrificing himself, he would keep his family safe.
I don't have that strong of a will to give myself over to Putin the way he did. Navalny is immensely brave and principled and while his sacrifice ultimately will likely end in vein, I hope beyond hope that it inspires and motivates those in Russia who prefer Putin be eliminated from power. Time will tell.
There are various clans of power in Russia, and not all of them are loyal, or report, to Putin.
Navalny had a lot of enemies.
> complacent
It's likely. The alternative could lead to some serious instability. For example, evidence suggests Kadyrov took out Nemtsov, but holding Kadyrov accountable could lead to chaos in Chechnya. Is it worth it? This is realpolitik.
Even if the Russians wanted to poison that piece of shit. They could rid of him wiser in Russia without any trace. Navalny is Russian his fammily Russians and his friends are Russians and even buisiness ir Russian. So after poisoning him. Russians delivers him from a door in Russia to a door in Germany.
The main question: what is wrong with him? He is willing to harm people? Russian citizens to receive sanctions? Rather he is secret agent send by KGB had already deceived everyone, and EU officials went to him in Germany. Where talking about what they thought they would do to Russia or what they can. The Russians now know who is who and what they think. It can be a diversion.
Incredibly sad. Navalny had balls of steel to stand up to a murderous dictator like he did. It feels like it was all for nought. Putin kills another opposition figure and nobody bats an eye.
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