Then select 'Forecast Discussion' and read the discussions. They are usually updated a few times a day at the minimum, but during active weather events they are generally updated every 3 to 4 hours with new information (more data from the 850mb layer, for example).
If you are in the United States, you may be interested in the scientific forecaster discussions produced by your local NWS office. They provide more insight into forecast confidence and general regional dynamics. Theyre produced several times a day and are often quite fun to read.
Its amazing how far we have come in weather prediction. A few decades ago, 5-day forecasts did not exist and now we get 10-day forecasts that are reliable enough that we take it for granted.
In my experience, nothing beats getting the forecast straight from the horses mouth (NWS that is). Some companies are notorious for producing 30+ day forecasts, which cant have any meaningful levels of skill.
I never understood why NOAA/NWS didnt just create their own mobile app. I use Wx[0], which parses NWS data directly and can be found on f-droid.
Side note: the “forecaster’s discussion” for your local NWS forecast area is easily the best one you can find. It’s the one all your weather apps and local TV meteorologists crib from. Sure, there’s a bit of meteorological terminology to learn, but they often link off to a glossary (then you can put that term into Wikipedia).
My favorite part of the forecasts is that they tell you unequivocally when they are confident in something and when they are not sure. They are not afraid to say a qualified “we don’t know”. This is is a stark contrast to almost every other forecast falsely projecting complete confidence trying to vie for viewership to attract advertising dollars.
For future reference, check out weather.gov and read the forecast discussion - it's written by your local meteorologist and is THICK with jargon and interesting stuff to google. It's sort of the 'root' for weather information and you pay for it anyways through taxes. It's great.
Your last statement is the so true. An amateur forecaster can spend ten minutes looking at the some big picture (synoptic scale) weather and know regional trends (this part of country is dry, these guys are wet, humid etc). This would be a pressure & wind map, showing location of high/lows, maybe some 850mb moisture charts too... But you are painting broad strokes. All of these dumbos on HN want to know exactly when the rain is going to hit your exact location, or you have to be within 3 degrees C modeling the surface temperature of my street so i can either ride my bike or not. We just cant do that with the current science & computational landscape!
After you have the synoptic scale picture, then you zoom in on your target area and get specific if you want to. This local expertise is where you NWS office comes into play. You want the local forecast from these guys!
It's very possible there are politics at play here, but the NWS forecast sounds like something we won't get every year?
Although we had it in 2017 in the North Bay and 2018 in Butte county, so maybe it is going to be common?
Just a little knowledge to drop, as a bachelor degree meteorologist and also coder / HN'er.
Dont use your built in phone app for forecasts. Dont expect hour by hour precision (maybe for the next few hours sure, but not 2,3,4,5 days out). Trust nobody expect the trained professionals at NWS. These people look at ALL the models, they watch things like a hawk. I work with some of these nerds and it's crazy. They are like 'oh jimbob did you see the latest GFS kicking out the low up into canada? oh yeah doug that is crazy, but the euro says blah blah and NAM says blahblah... Their job is to literally make a forecast, for the same area, every day. Some people do it for years and years! Think of the experience, wisdom, little tricks and tips etc. Just go to weather.gov, look at it for 2 minutes. Read the foreacst discussion if you want to get your details.
NOAA and the NWS provides weather data for most of the country but forecasts aren't easily accessible through their website. Instead, companies like AccuWeather take that data and turn it into forecasts and sell them on to media companies to be plastered with ads.
Imo the NWS should just start providing forecasts of its own on its website. I'm sick of having to trawl through ad filled weather websites for a 7 day forecast
I see. That's interesting, you may want to send those comments to your regional forecast office. They have several citizen-science programs like SKYWARN and their ham radio observers, that help them improve their regional forecasts.
Same. A lot of weather sites just pull the free NWS data and wrap it in ads.
Some use higher-resolution grids or better models (check http://forecastadvisor.com/ for your area), but they're almost always at least based on the free NWS data. Also, only weather.gov lets you click around on a map to get their model results for any square on the grid, not just towns and cities.
What is wrong with these people?!
EDIT: Weird. "Its satellite data division would lose $513 million, or 22 percent, of its current funding under the proposal... National Weather Service would be fortunate by comparison, facing only 5 percent cuts." I doubt slashing the satellite budget would improve forecasts, which tend to rely upon data.
In the US we have Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) issued by regional weather offices. They are a great resource and I wish more people outside aviation knew about them. They will generally include a high level discussion, detailed conversations about each forecast period, as well as aviation and marine (if applicable) considerations. Usually gives some great insight into what, for example “chance of showers” really means.
I always tell tech savvy people to look at the forecast discussion and not the infographics. For example, look at Spokane:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.65726000000...
Then select 'Forecast Discussion' and read the discussions. They are usually updated a few times a day at the minimum, but during active weather events they are generally updated every 3 to 4 hours with new information (more data from the 850mb layer, for example).
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