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Parents method produces a result in finite time with probability infinitesimally close to 1. Yours produces a result in finite with probability infinitesimally close to 0. That is the greatest measurable difference in all of mathematics.

In other words, on method basically always succeeds, the other never succeeds (not "fails", but "never succeeds")



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The difference is probability.

That's funny that would say that since what you are saying is completely wrong. Different techniques would have different probabilities, but none would have what you are describing.

Uh? The outcome probability is the same if you do it once or if you do it infinitely, it's an independent event.

Yeah there's a real difference between a very small but still finite chance, and an infinitesimally small chance. If you're trying to multiply negative infinity by reciprocal infinity, you have to be specific about how big each infinity is. :)

Probability theory works, with 100% chance even. Which annoyingly isn't the same as always.

Yep, this is why I wouldn't personally use 0 probability to describe anything in the real world. It technically works, it's just the realm of pure measure theory rather than anything applicable to finitely many trials.

As far as we know, there is no underlying theory of probability for them to be techniques of. So maybe they are equivalent in some sense, but on the face of it, they are separate ideas.

The difference being that yours being tails is actually not a fact and a probabilistic outcome? vs. it just always being tails and you not knowing?

how would we ever know the difference?


The probabilities differ by less than 0.0000001.

Yeah, that's really different, though. It's essentially a way to simplify counting. But the "converse" of the probabilistic method doesn't work: zero probability doesn't mean inexistence in an infinite set.

Halving the probability that a baby dies isn't the same thing as doubling the probability that the baby lives.

Are the probabilities equal? I agree that they're both possible, but I don't have any clear intuition for why they should be the same -- or which would be larger if they're not the same.

The point the parent is making is that 1) represents a class of results rather than a single result, and any single member of that class is equally as likely as 2) or 3). Obviously the class as a whole is more likely than any other single result, but that's a different assertion.

If the probability of producing the desired result in any given attempt is zero, then the probability of producing the desired result given infinite attempts is still zero.

If monkeys are incapable of typing, then the probability is zero.


> If you do a task with a 20 percent chance of success but you do it 10 times, your chance of succeeding at least once becomes close to 100 percent.

No it doesn't because those aren't independent events.


With respect, you seem to be saying that probabilities work better than absolutes, and yet your final sentence seems to be an absolute.

No. The two methods are qualitatively equally good. In both cases, some outputs have probability floor(2^n/K)/2^n while others have probability ceil(2^n/K)/2^n. The numbers of outputs with each probability are such that they average out to 1/K. The only difference is the distribution of which output numbers have which of these two probabilities.

The probability distribution is deterministic, but not the particular outcome.

What's the difference between 0% and 0.0000000000000000000000l%?

0% never happens. .0bar1 can happen on the next pull of the lever.

Never, ever, ever underestimate the danger of small odds and just one...more...pull.

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