Intel has at least 20 more years and probably dozens of real chances to reclaim past market position and maybe even more so.
Intel is a large company with a massive market cap. The bigger they are, the longer they fall. They just have so much runway and market gravity.
For comparison, Apple shot itself in the foot repeatedly for at least 10 years before Steve Jobs rejoined, and it took 10 more years after that before the iPhone came out, which no layman could have predicted.
I think Intel’s current leadership is slowing righting the ship, it just takes time in this space. It seems like Intel is making the right moves for 5-10 years from now instead of trying to maximize short term returns.
To me, Intel is starting to look more like IBM. Still showing engineering might in some areas, holding onto a huge trove of patents, making decent money, but losing growth, momentum and appeal over a long period of time.
Sure, they will exist and refuse to die, but will they be a significant part of the future? I’m not optimistic.
It wasn’t that long ago that US companies led this industry. The quotes in the article are pretty condescending in that light. I’d put 50/50 odds on Intel pulling their heads out of their asses in the next few generations even without government intervention.
Side question, how do you see the future of Intel? Do you share the doom perspective or think that they continue to have opportunities ot catch up? Thanks!
The process node lead won't last forever though. We're going to reach the end of silicon soon, by the mid-2020s at least. Whatever replaces it isn't necessarily going to be from Intel, because they don't have expertise in much besides silicon. I wouldn't be surprised if it's another player, like IBM, that finally cracks it.
Oof, fun times at Intel right now. There are pockets of Intel not forgetting what made it successful, but they're usually the most difficult places to grow a career as they get snuffed out pretty quick
This happens to every giant eventually (and to countries or civilizations). They get climb to the top, and then they hold such dominant positions that they aren't forced to try. They get lazy or sloppy (and in Intel's case, I'm not suggesting the engineers were the sloppy ones... more likely strategic decisions from management and quarterly earnings per share-focused execs). Eventually they are dethroned, and some never return to power.
Intel will never go away, but they definitely will become laggards for the foreseeable future. In their industry it takes years or even a decade to see the fruits of your effort.
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