Agreed. There are a host of other potential applications that could push hardware as well.
And, I do believe that if one were to have mass market appeal (i.e. broad utility and demand), then we may see increased PC demand again (provided the PC is the appropriate platform).
But, do you think that there are a significant number of such applications waiting in the wings for PC hardware advances, or do you believe that perhaps no such applications are ready for prime-time as of now?
None of those use cases are going to grow the PC market. The things you're describing have always been a niche (remember Workstation Class PCs?) that may add a few $$ to the bottom line, but they are not going to drive growth.
The PC market has relied on end users - consumers and business users - for it's growth engine for decades, and that appears to be drying up. One of the reasons for that is outlined in the article, for most use cases we don't need faster.
True, but maybe the nature of the demand has changed, as computers have matured into consumer devices.
However... if some new way of using computers comes along, it seems more likely to emerge in a more open system (like windows or android or linux) than in a closed one. Or maybe at the level of ARM SoC, with its own hardware.
I think the PC's Death in the marketplace is due to the PC being given over to more and more web apps and the power of current PCs being nowhere near the bottleneck it once was.
When there are compelling apps and net bandwidth that requires higher performing PCs, we'll see PC sales trend upwards again.
I think that was the case in the past, to a large degree.
But with desktop PC technology largely plateauing technology wise, I think this scenario is becoming more and more realistic. As long as the desktop market hangs on long enough for parts to be available, that is.
It would be interesting for you to say more about 'easily see use cases for more "muscle"'. I was under the impression that one of the challenges that PC vendors were facing is that laptops and PCs are 'good enough' for more and more of the computer marketplace and so they were unable to depend on 'upgrade' revenue as the components got more capable.
I don't doubt that there are folks that can use infinite amounts of computer power, but if they become so specialized perhaps it will shift the market around again.
Thanks very much for this link. My reading of the article is that communications and social interaction will be the main use for computing devices, and that market will grow significantly. It might be that the desktop PC is still sold in large quantities for those that need it.
Hmm, there seems to be the implication that we've hit some magical end state in hardware development where consumer needs are forever met.
Personally, I think of these hardware market developments with an eye toward interplay with the software market. Historically, software developers had to consider the capabilities of consumer hardware in determining feature scope and user experience. Hardware capabilities served as a restraint on the product, and ignoring them could effectively reduce market size. The effect was two-sided though, with new more demanding software driving consumers to upgrade. Currently, in this model, the hardware stagnation can be interpreted as mutually-reinforcing conditions of software developers not developing to the limit of current hardware to deliver marketable products, and consumers not feeling the need to upgrade. In a sense, the hardware demands of software have stagnated as well.
From this, I wonder if the stagnation is due to a divergence in the difficulty in developing software that can utilize modern computing power in a way that is useful/marketable from that of advancing hardware. Such a divergence can be attributed to a glut of novice programmers that lack experience in large development efforts and the increasing scarcity and exponential demand for experienced developers. Alternatively, the recent increase in the value of design over raw features could inhibit consideration of raw computing power in product innovation. Another explanation could be that changes to the software market brought about by SaaS, indie development, and app store models seem to promote smaller, simpler end-user software products (e.g. web browsers vs office suites).
I wouldn't be surprised if this stagnation is reversed in the future (5+ years from now) from increased software demands. Areas remain for high-powered consumer hardware, including home servers (an area that has been evolving for some time, with untapped potential in media storage, automation and device integration, as well as resolving increasing privacy concerns of consumer SaaS, community mesh networking and resource pooling, etc), virtual reality, and much more sophisticated, intuitive creative products (programming, motion graphics, 3d modeling, video editing, audio composition, all of which I instinctively feel are ripe for disruption).
I'd say that stage has already come, there's huge amounts of people where their main or only computing device is a phone or tablet. I've dealt with recruitment in a non-technical field and their phone is the online nexus point for them for any emails, documents, or website interactions. Even for gaming I'd argue PC is going into enthusiast territory and the GPU pricing situation hasn't helped that, consoles and phone gaming is strong and streaming has developed a niche.
A dozen years ago that seemed like something absolutely crazy, but in 2023 it's looking as if, say, >50% market share in everything from microcontrollers to smartphones to automotive to servers to supercomputers could be reality within the next dozen years.
Mac/Windows personal PCs could be the only significant holdouts by even 2030 let alone 2035.
It might not happen, but it no longer seems insane to suggest it.
Agreed, which is increasingly another reason I go for server/workstation class components. There are other professionals who need this class of machines, the CAD/CAM, scientific workstation, etc. crowd who e.g. Sun used to cater to. Small numbers for sure.
The other segment I can think of are the really hard core PC gamers, who I don't have any sort of reading on (decided to give that up in the mid-late '80s to limit damage to my hands on up). 5% might be too low, but I'd accept it as a working estimate. E.g. my parents would today be well served by small unconfigurable boxes as long as they can speak to a regular big monitor, keyboard and mouse, and I plan to move them from Windows XP to something non-Windows like Chrome/Chromium OS in a year or three. Hmmm, I suppose there's also the big machine to satisfy a big ego market as well. Big machine as in way overpowered to run MS Office for a Pointy Haired Manager.
The rest of the "PC" market is as you note, although it's not inconsequential. But it has very low margin, is trailing edge in every way, and by now has got to be "mature", in that replacements almost certainly dwarf new installations, especially with the declines in new business formation. I'm not focused on it, don't know how it will move, but again something like the machines that could well serve my parents, e.g. based largely on tablet technology cores, could well disrupt it and take it over from Dell etc. as they are today.
Which I mention because there's got to be a reason Microsoft is investing in Dell going private, although it might not make much sense (e.g. the acquisition of Skype which I gather put the final nails in the coffin of Microsoft's mobile phone ambitions, since that make them radioactive to the carriers).
When software becomes the more important factor in a technology product, you know the hardware is likely to take more of a back seat in years to come.
No, high demand for software drives hardware demand. So long as real innovation and advancement continues we will need more processing power & storage to keep up. Market saturation may be reached, but giving people a reason to upgrade ASAP keeps demand up.
It's when the apps settle down into stable patterns that the hardware will suffer. The PC market is stagnating because email, web, word processing, and casual games are not demanding more over time (save for what bells and whistles can be forced in), leaving us with a market where a $200 notebook is good enough for most users ... And tablets are eating into that.
I'm not so sure. There are more PCs around now than there were then, and the number of computing devices has grown vastly. However they aren't windows PCs...
Depends what you define as a "PC" , if you mean an intel x86 CPU in a box with a MS operating system and a "C drive" as the dominant platform with 90%+ market share then probably yes.
I don't really see this as PCs vs tablets where only one can be left standing, I think we will see a diverse range of devices and software come to market over the next few years. The ones that actually suit peoples needs will survive.
How about all the industries like HFT or AdTech? You mentioned yourself research, there is a dire need for computing power (and I don't think it's that much of a niche).
Don't you think all these machine learning oriented start-up would like more CPU? How about big data platform?
It's very narrow minded to think that the only market is people using their laptop in their home office.
Maybe, though I am concerned about processing power stagnating.
Advancement is governed by economics as well as technical capability. There must be demand for new technology, or a field stagnates. Witness aviation as an example... utterly stagnant outside of military niche applications.
People seem to no longer want faster and faster computers, and the market seems to be moving toward lighter-weight lower-power portable devices like netbooks, the iPad, etc. Those have slower CPUs than current-generation desktops. I suppose the extreme gamer and server/datacenter markets are still driving performance, but for how long?
One problem is that programmers are not using the capabilities of current-generation processors, partly because the dominant OS (cough Windows cough) makes it horrifically painful to deploy desktop apps. This drives all development to the web and turns desktops into thin clients. In the end this kills demand for performance outside the datacenter market.
This is it. We will always need tools that do the things that what we designate "PCs" — computers with monitors, keyboard, mice, and peripherals — do best today. In absolute numbers, the sales volume of such devices may even continue to rise in the long run. But they will probably look more and more like our mobile devices, or they will be replaced by grown-up tablets.
I don't know, get out of retail hardware and potentially increase market share by allowing manufacturers to tailor devices to their respective markets? I'd just like to see more variety tbh (look at the plethora of handheld PCs), brought with a heavy dose of nostalgia for the home computer days.
And, I do believe that if one were to have mass market appeal (i.e. broad utility and demand), then we may see increased PC demand again (provided the PC is the appropriate platform).
But, do you think that there are a significant number of such applications waiting in the wings for PC hardware advances, or do you believe that perhaps no such applications are ready for prime-time as of now?
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