My guess is that Putin would be happy to have Snowden break the agreement, as long as he doesn't go to the press and take credit for it. Putin's government has been working constantly to undermine America's foreign influence, and these leaks go a long way towards doing that.
It seems he accepted Putin's terms to not release anymore information. I wonder if that means no more information coming out, period, or that since most/all of the information is now with third parties that it's their responsibility. I doubt Putin likes being disrespected with loopholes and technicalities, but I more-so doubt that Snowden would halt the revelations altogether for the sake of his own safety. I suspect this was discussed and that Russian officials agreed to the continued release of what is no longer under Snowden's control.
I wonder if Russia is setting up Snowden for eviction. If Russia knows that newspapers will soon publish more Snowden leaks, it can publically demand that Snowden stop leaking and then kick him out when the leaks inevitably appear--even though the leaks have, in fact, already occurred. In this way, Russia complies with U.S. demands without appearing to just hand him over.
If I were Putin, I'd keep Snowden as some sort of bargaining chip, although as years go on, Snowden's value as such a chip would continue to decrease that the Americans would probably refuse that barter, preferring to see Putin get screwed rather than to capture Snowden.
But if I were Snowden I'd be worried about the regime after Putin, imagine a backroom deal where the US government secretly says "We'll help you get to power in Moscow if you agree to withdraw out of Ukraine, and give us Snowden."
If Obama were to pardon Snowden, and the US reinstate his passport, I can't see Putin keeping him in Russia. Why would he do that? As long as Snowden is a thorn in the NSA's side, Putin is clearly glad to have him, but a pardon would neutralize the benefit. It's not even like he could trade Snowden for some Russian spies; what sense would that make? The US intelligence community does not think of Snowden as someone they want back on American soil, except maybe to kill him.
I found an interesting Assange interview on the Morales incident [0]. The whole thing is worth reading, but let me just quote one bit:
Portugal, Spain and France closed their airspace. Some other things happened. Some preemptive extradition requests were sent out, for example, to Iceland, which we got hold of and published. So there was — the U.S. was pressuring countries where flights might go through or land or refuel. And as a result of that operation, then it became clear that in fact it was too dangerous to — at that moment, at least, to take any flight out of Moscow. And this is what then led to his eventual asylum. It wasn’t just the removal of the passport, which removed his ability to use commercial flights. It was that the U.S. was closing airspace and acting in a manner where you would have to assume that they — you know, if a flight went past the United States — not over U.S. territory, but past the United States — there might be some kind of interdiction.
Assange goes on to suggest that Russia had their hands forced by the US Government's willingness to pull strings to catch Snowden, and by the willingness of Western Europe -- France, Portugal, and Spain, at least -- to roll over. This put Putin in the position of either granting Snowden's asylum request or looking like another US patsy. Well, the last thing Putin would ever do is look weak. (I suspect Putin is not really too unhappy to make sure Snowden stays alive.)
Anyway, although Putin's cooperation is clearly necessary, the primary force keeping Snowden in Russia is, and has always been, the US Government.
I suspect Putin would hand someone over from Russia for the right price; Snowden currently provides more value to Russia by annoying the US than he would handed over.
Please. Snowden was never going to be a tool for Russia. He is nothing but an inconvenient annoyance to them. They have all the leverage they need simply by having veto power on the UNSC.
It is more a case of Putin being in an untenable position. If he capitulates and hands him over to the US then he will be seen internally as weak. But he needs to maintain and strengthen relations with the US. So allowing him to stay but telling him to shut up is the best compromise they can come up with.
Putin is obviously hosting Snowden to piss off the U.S. That says more about Putin than Snowden IMO.
That said, I'm a U.S. citizen and Snowden gave me my secrets. Secrets I didn't know I had, until he and the reporters he worked with told me. So I appreciate what he did.
Agree with this. Trump has more or less expressed that he wants the US to mend its relationship with Putin. Friends are great for trading favors. I can't imagine what Putin would ask for in exchange for Snowden, but Trump would love to make a deal.
Two things:
1. Putin is sick and tired of US raining (or trying to) on his parade. This would tell US to go F itself, increase Putin's cred in Russia and in many other countries.
2. Snowden has a trove of intel that Russia would love to have.
Personally, I have been wondering is the cozy relationship between Trump and Putin signals danger for Snowden. I could totally see Snowden being handed over as a gesture.
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