Ad blockers are going to gradually become irrelevant (like pop-up blockers) primarily because of the mobile web.
I believe the adoption of the mobile web is forcing advertisers to reconsider their strategies. With the limited screen real-estate and cut-throat competition for those pixels it becomes difficult for the marketers to go overboard.
I doubt very seriously that ad blockers diminish ad revenue significantly. Mobile Firefox is the default browser on which devices? Defaults count for a lot.
I think we're both right: companies probably do believe they'll be better able to monetize an app than a web site, but they're probably wrong, and they probably think that for faddish reasons.
That's a good point. I do think the push to get users on mobile has a good deal to do with the difficulty of blocking ads on mobile. Maybe that's where we're headed. Instead of making adblockers illegal users will be herded into locked down platforms that don't allow adblockers.
The barrier to entry to installing a mobile ad blocker (and then dealing with managing whitelists when shit doesn't appear correctly) is a lot higher than an ad blocker on desktop. I think that has a lot to do with the disconnect.
I also think that mobile ad blocking was something the industry feared -- and that the more in-touch tech community cared about -- but regular users simply don't think about as much. That said -- if mobile ads continue to get worse and if the process of managing a whitelist/using a mobile ad blocker can get easier, then maybe this will switch again.
The worst part of this to me -- and I say this as someone who makes my income basically b/c I'm a journalist who works for a publication who relies on advertising -- is that if the ad industry sees this as being much ado about nothing, the ad industry won't actually start trying to force better ad practices/blacklisting awful ad exchanges. And then we all lose.
You can see indirect evidence for this by looking at the exponential rise in ad-blocker-blocking efforts from a wide array of sites. 'Hi, we see you're using an ad blocker. Please turn it off.' That literally did not exist several years ago, even though ad blocking has been around for decades. Companies in recent years are getting aggressively desperate as the web becomes increasingly user friendly. At the same time, mobile is still dominated by an OS developed by the the world's largest ad delivery corporation - and it behaves accordingly.
I mean it already died in my point of view approximately a decade ago, where a significant portion of internet users were using adBlockers for everything, and its usage has only gotten bigger now.
The only place where ads are thriving right now is mobile, and companies had gone over the line from the get-go with obnoxious and intrusive/misleading ads and spyware. It may thrive for a while before the blockers make their way efficiently into the mobile world.
I'd imagine at some point depriving sites of revenue will lead to adversarial outcomes where many if not all will simply refuse to load. So if ad blockers become mainstream it will be interesting change to the web.
I've wondered this myself - what happens when ad blocking technology becomes integrated into mobile devices, or the general public starts to use it because the newest, shiniest browser now bundles it by default?
The conclusion of the article is questionable, it seems more likely that ad blocking is about to become ineffective. Everything is moving to mobile, where Google/Apple have much more control of the platform and make it difficult or impossible to install ad blockers, particularly those that block ads in apps.
Second even where solutions to app ads exist (AdAway on Android) they are ineffective on in-stream advertising, which seems to be coming to dominate. There doesn't seem to be a way to block Twitter's promoted tweets in the Twitter app for example.
While I clamor for privacy and advocate against ads whenever I can, most users would not not appreciate having to pay for dozens of different services every month.
Just imagine: 5 bucks a month for Facebook, 3 for Reddit, 10 for Google Search, 4 for Gmail, 15 for Youtube, 5-20 each for 5 different newspapers, ...
But there are practical realities that make a significant increase in ad block usage unlikely:
* A lot of browsing has shifted to mobile. Mobile browsers don't have extensions, except for FF and a few Chromium derivatives, which almost no-one uses. That's a big chunk of impressions right there.
* Google is probably not happy about losing a double digit percentage of impressions on desktop. They are trying to hamstring ad blocking in Chrome by removing request interception APIs.
* A lot of websites have mobile web versions, but aggressively push you towards using the app instead, where ads can't be blocked and profiling is much easier. (FB, Instagram, TikTok, Reddit, ...)
* Plenty of sites are using adblock detectors. Probably only those that really need the revenue to survive.
That sounds like a very high number. At least anecdotally, I'm not aware of anyone in my circle of influence who uses a mobile ad blocker. My suspicion would be that less people use mobile ad blockers than on a browser.
Just wow. I have used Adblock on desktop before and didn't realize how much difference it does on mobile. On desktop it just removes clutter but on mobile it truly changes the whole browsing experience. This will be huge. Almost none of my non-techie friends use Adblock on desktop but everyone will be using an iOS blocker. This will hurt sites big time, and I feel sorry for sites that weren't using the big bad ad networks but still get blocked (whether that happens I'm not sure). The question is -- is it too late to go back and make advertising "right" now? Will sites that use non-intrusive and non-tracking ads be just as blocked as those who do, or does these blockers give no incentive to improve, only to circumvent?
Seems obvious without thought to me that it’s mostly moot. Very few people will be running machines like we have for the last 30-40 years, most will be on Android/iOS where ad blocking will be minimal.
Savvy users will continue to block on machines that aren’t walled gardens and through pi-hole style blocking.
I think the cat and mouse aspect will be completely overshadowed by tech giants continually neutering their users ability to block ads.
Not necessarily. But ultimately right now the level of mobile ad blocking is very low. This will make a real difference to that - regardless as to whether it's new or innovative.
I kind of suspect adblocking is doomed to die rather quickly if it ever seriously threatens the ad industry. As anti-adblock has shown even fairly trivial measures can be effective; and if you control the platform in more depth you can be a lot trickier about it, e.g. by doing minification-esque transforms to the complete dom tree.
I believe the adoption of the mobile web is forcing advertisers to reconsider their strategies. With the limited screen real-estate and cut-throat competition for those pixels it becomes difficult for the marketers to go overboard.
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