The effect of the EU being on a federal trajectory, albeit increasingly contested, is interesting here. The independence movement in Scotland, and I expect this applies to Catalonia and Venice, paints a picture of independence within the EU. Scottish nationalists regularly talk about moving away from the UK model and towards a Scandinavian model, which is probably not what the average reader of mises.org has in mind when they think about secession.
Of course it's very complex as it seems the weight of legal opinion is that Scotland will have to leave the EU if they leave the UK. There are a few legal academics that dispute that legal point but their case doesn't sound very convincing to me and the EU institutions have more or less said they will have to reapply. However Scotland does have the advantage of having a fairly good faith partner in the rest of the UK if they do leave. If the current disputes over the pound and the debt don't turn vicious then a huge stack of treaties being signed all in one day to make it all legal becomes imaginable. I think Barcelona-Madrid and Venice-Rome relations might take a somewhat different path.
Yes, and Scotland may want to leave the UK and join the EU on its own terms, but that is almost certain to fail. Many EU countries, especially Spain, have regional nationalist movements. They do not want to encourage regional partitions by letting breakaway regions join the EU. Scotland is better off in the UK than outside on its own.
I'm a little concerned that Scotland might end up outside the EU against its will, regardless of whether or not they vote for independence.
If Scotland stays in the UK and the UK leaves the EU, Scotland is out as well. If Scotland becomes independent, the Spanish might block their EU membership to deter Catalan independence.
Re Scotland, I suspect that the EU made some concessions to make them leaving less likely. On the whole the EU doesn't like countries becoming independent (Catalonia, for example) of their parent country. Coherence is key for the EU
There is a fair possibility of the breakup of the UK which is a country of countries (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland).
However it is worth pointing out that although there is both a strong national identity in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and a somewhat disparaging view of England and the English; Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have their own devolved Parliaments except England. Furthermore, people from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland can vote on English laws dispite the reverse not being true.
I think it's likely that more power will be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in exchange for keeping within the UK. One of the main reasons for Scotland to remain was that it would not be allowed to use the pound if it broke away.
Another key issue around a possible Scottish breakaway is Trident, the UK's ongoing independently-controlled nuclear deterrent. Trident is actually four submarines armed with ballistic missiles operated by the Royal Navy based at Clyde Naval Base on the west coast of Scotland.
The costs of needing to relocate personnel and the base would be a major sticking point in any Scottish breakaway negotiation.
Also the eurozone is extremely weak economically in part to needing to prop up the Euro and dealing with Greece.
The point I'm trying to make here is that although a majority of Scots voted to stay in the EU, I'm not certain of their fondness of breaking away from the UK completely and going all in on the EU.
What I think is more likely is that Scotland will do a sort of flip on how Greenland is within the Danish Realm and out of the EU but Denmark is part of the EU.
Having said that if the EU is looking like it will collapse then Scotland will stay.
Yea I think you’ve really got a great point here overall. Personally I think smaller government is better, and it makes sense that Scotland could or perhaps should become a separate nation from the rest of the UK. But… you can’t support that without also supporting Brexit IMO because there is no meaningful difference in philosophy here.
The main challenge for Scotland is EU membership if they break away. It’ll get vetoed by Spain who doesn’t want Catalonia to break away. Frankly, perhaps unfortunately, I don’t see Scottish independence in the cards for that reason. Fostering nationalistic, anti-UK sentiment for political power is a dangerous game to play when you’re going to remain in the UK and is loosely akin to all the pillow-rattling that Texans do about seceding. It also somewhat contradicts the mission of the EU. Why stop at Scotland? Why not Catalonia? Or Brittany? How does this not give fuel to secession movements in the US as well? You can’t have your cake and eat it too. You can’t “support self-determination except when I disagree with who is self-determining”.
Ooh, good point. Gibraltar is a very interesting case. As far as I understand, they really strongly want to stay in the UK and not join Spain, but they also really strongly want to stay in the EU, presumably because of Spain.
That's a tough one. No idea how that will turn out. In my mind, I now see lots of bits and pieces of the UK becoming parts of Scotland.
I guess having free trade and free movement of people within the EU makes this kind of thing practical. I'm not sure Venice will happen but Scotland may.
Since we are talking hypotheticals, if those pushing for Scottish independence get their way, sometime in the future Scotland may find itself out of the UK and back in the EU.
Something I hadn't considered was the breakdown between the individual UK nations.
What happens if the UK as a whole decides to leave the euro zone, perhaps by a small margin or perhaps by a lot, but for some reason Scotland decides buy a 15% margin to stay in the euro zone.
Is there any reason to think we might see Scotland decide to stay with the euro zone it leave the UK in that case? Or are the ties so strong that the UK would probably stay together no matter what even if one of the member nations has a strongly different opinion?
Unless they can arrange and commit to a neat handoff where UK leaves the EU, Scotland becomes independent, and Scotland joins the EU at the same time, there's a period of time when Scotland is outside the EU, and too much uncertainty for that to be feasible.
I'm a little amazed that none of the comments in this thread mention the EU. If the Scots go for "Independence in Europe" as Salmond has said they will, surely that would be the model for Catalonia or Flanders to follow.
Commented a few times on the Catalan point but I don't think it's as big an issue as it's made out to be.
Rajoy will likely follow the direction set by the EC and also, Catalonia is a different situation to Scotland. The former is a region of Spain whereas Scotland is already a sovereign entity and would only be withdrawing from the Act of Union, not seceding from a country.
Edit: Also, it's already a choice between 100% being out of the EU if we stay in the UK, or at least having a shot of joining the EU which could be more likely in the backdrop of Brexit negotiation.
I do believe mechanisms for secession can make sense. I hope Scotland stays in the Union but I also believe they should have the right to choose not to. However then you get into the question of what constitutes a region that could reasonably secede. That must imply a historic and inalienable right to the territory, to be able to make that decision. It’s a difficult one.
If you and your neighbours want to not be subject to the French government, you can always go somewhere else. The fact there’s probably nowhere better for you to go is hardly France’s problem.
Scotland can be independent _and_ be in the same economic market (ignoring UK and Spain willing to veto Scotland reentering EU out of spite / own political motives).
I can't think of any situation where Westminster will prefer for Scotland or NI to secede. You'd simply be weakening yourself politically and economically, throwing away tax revenue, and looking pretty incompetent (even more so than now).
From the EU perspective, my own view is that if Sturgeon can find a way to persuade Scotland to go the full EU i.e. Eurozone, no opt outs and no rebate then I can definitely see Juncker finding a way to accommodate by doing some sort of quid pro quo with Spain. Whether the Eurozone economy will recover sufficiently (and/or the UK economy will tank sufficiently) to make that politically viable is anyone's guess.
For NI, if it wasn't for the super strong unionist movement, I'd say that there was a lot to be said for them going full EU: they're small, relatively poor, bordering Eire. But that's a really, really big if, probably enough to kill any real chance of it occurring in the next 20 years.
Currency is one of these aspects that are the least problematic here (many EU countries have their own currencies, and it was the same with the UK). What is more challenging is that becoming an independent country takes time, and if it happens, Scots will have their own challenges. Joining the EU will definitely possible, but I can't imagine it would be a quick process. Whereas if the UK changed their minds and decided to rejoin the EU, you could expect it could happen within 3 years or so.
Scotland coming back to the EU would be great, but not easy, since lots of EU countries would be willing to prevent it in order to make an example for their own separatist regions (Catalonia / Basque Country in Spain, for example)
It’s further complicated by various EU countries having regions chafing for independence that they would not like to encourage. If Scotland can leave the UK and become an EU member what happens in Spain? Or Belgium? Or even France? They will want to draw a line in the sand. It is most likely that Scotland will end up outside both the UK and the EU. The Shetland Isles, where the oil actually is, favour remaining part of the UK and if we’re honouring referendums they’ll get that option and Scotland will be left with nothing and no one. And the SNP will blame everyone but themselves.
Of course it's very complex as it seems the weight of legal opinion is that Scotland will have to leave the EU if they leave the UK. There are a few legal academics that dispute that legal point but their case doesn't sound very convincing to me and the EU institutions have more or less said they will have to reapply. However Scotland does have the advantage of having a fairly good faith partner in the rest of the UK if they do leave. If the current disputes over the pound and the debt don't turn vicious then a huge stack of treaties being signed all in one day to make it all legal becomes imaginable. I think Barcelona-Madrid and Venice-Rome relations might take a somewhat different path.
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