however the people on mars would have been supported significantly more by people from earth, both in getting to Mars and maintaining a colony before it became self sufficient. So it would take a generation or two after full sustainability for this sort of mindset to come into play in the younger generations, perhaps 4th and 5th generation martians.
Maybe not large scale colonization - but once the Martians start having kids (if possible) and produce them in large numbers, imports from Mars (specialized, high tech manufacturing equipment) will increase. The Martians born there will not care living under harsh circumstances - they won't know any better. They will just keep working to make their lives a bit more comfortable, one generation at a time.
If humanity somehow managed to build a self-sustaining long-term colony on Mars, it'd be fascinating to watch how the martian humans would evolve over the next million years.
Humans can live off the land just about anywhere on Earth, but with a Mars mission now, they would be wholly dependent for decades at the very least. For colonization to work, it must be self-sufficient nearly from day one. Otherwise, it would be just a few footprints, 50 years too early and countless billions over budget.
Colonisation of Mars is going to be a long process. There is going to be a gap of decades (maybe even more than a century) between the arrival of the first settlers and the attainment of self-sufficiency (autarky, the ability to survive without continual resupply ships from earth). From my reading of Musk's various comments, he doesn't think it is likely he'll live to see self-sufficiency (autarky), but he certainly hopes that the arrival of the first settlers can happen in his lifetime.
When we establish a Mars colony it will probably take centuries before it's truly self-sufficient. I don't see the point of starting with a self sufficient colony on Earth, especially if the challenges are quite different from Mars.
We will probably put people on mars eventually but a Mars colony is basically just not going to be self sustaining. We have Antarctic bases that are definitely not self sustaining which is a similar thing
If we had a self-sufficient colony on Mars (or wherever), that could provide a reservoir of both population and (perhaps more importantly) civilization and technology that would allow our descendants to return and re-colonize the Earth (or rebuild its infrastructure) after a major disaster.
Even though Mars is clearly less habitable than Earth in general, the point is that the humans living there would be ready for it. If there were a disaster here that killed off most of our crops or something, society would collapse and have trouble recovering.
I would wager that if we get a established research colony on Mars, we're 100 years away from a mostly self-sufficient small city.
We're not going to have Mars colonized in a decade or two, but it's not going to take a thousand years, either. Probably. I'd say thriving colonies within a century or two.
Only until the colony can become self sufficient. The colonists will eventually develop more loyalty to each other rather than silly institutions on a planet 9-48 months away that know nothing of the harsh reality of martian life.
I think complacency and assurance of success played a role in the failures of early colonies. Did people really know it would be that hard? Certainly in the case of colonizing Mars, people will know about the lack of air, water, etc, and will rigorously prepare for them, with more advanced technology to boot. All things considered, I feel a Martian colonization effort today has a much better chance of success than the early American colonies. Not guaranteed, but better.
I remember the times where colonizing the solar system was a means for our collective survival, not an endgame for which we irreversibly change our society.
That aside, we could populate the solar system just as well with people who live a healthy century.
It only takes a few months to get to Mars with the current technology.
It wouldn't be that far off if we had the money and motivation.
We could probably have a mostly self sustaining colony in caves on Mars within ten years , if we really wanted to. It would just take an absurd amount of money and singular focus and dedication by governments and companies.
I find it very hard to imagine a human civilization on Mars being self-sufficient. Getting there is not the hard part. The ecology of self-sufficiency is not something we understand currently, even on Earth.
Perhaps. But that misses the largest issue with extraplanetary colonization: we don't have the technology to make a self-sustaining Martian colony at present. If the colony isn't self-sustaining, then all it means is that in the case of extinction-level disaster, some humans get to die a few years later.
reply