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OK. Then what is an acceptable level of error in approximation when dealing with people? 7 million, at a scale of billions? 7? 1?


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For most people it's supposedly something like 10^2.5 or ~300 people in your monkey sphere of varying levels of importance. So, in an exponential sort of way its decent rounding :P

> I am fairly sure that even a rough approximation is better than nothing.

Still very impressive. All 7 billion people on earth are better off with this rough approximation than nothing.


If you can't tell the difference between circa 100 people and circa 7 billion people then maybe you are just not very good at mathematics.

> for probably more than a billion or two people

That's a few orders of magnitude off.


What is your "acceptable number" of humans?

And the maximal delta between all 7 billion humans and the minimal version of many, let's say 3, makes such a statement unhelpfully limited in scope, while implying a controversy of thin air

I guess we don't count in log scale. The billions of people on the world will never get millions, only thousands, hundreds, and tens.

Give a person a meter and they'll take a kilometer. Ehh?


> There are only 6.6 billion people in the world, so you only need 33 bits (more precisely, 32.6 bits) of information about a person to determine who they are.

I think you should count the dead as well. But then, 33 bits ~= 8 billion, which should still be enough, I guess.


That does not mean 750 million individual humans, guaranteed.

A more reasonable estimate would be tens of billions. Even that may be an order of magnitude too low.

27 out of a million, or 1 out of 37000. For some reason using "whole people" in statistics makes it seem a little more real to me, 2.7 of 100k seems too dry and remote.

Not that I am a mathematician, but I am pretty sure that you can't actually calculate how many 40+ people there are just from these values since you can't assume the distribution is normal.

When compared to the number of people on Earth (or even the number of people on Facebook), 80k isn't even a rounding error.

Sure, though that number that you have memorized for the world population is wrong. We're at approx 7.8 billion rather than 4 billion.

In order to make your analogy correct you would need to know about 9 million people.

That would be like estimating the world population to be 1B instead of 7B, though...

With 7 billion people on the planet, one in a million events are guaranteed to happen to about 7k people.

Law of stats of large numbers etc


The predictions actually won't change at all!

None of the predictions in the article actually use # of humans as a data point.

You aren't gonna input 800m to a calculation and get any different result - no calculation uses that number.

The author uses all species of earth to estimate a species size - population density ratio. This works if you remove humans from the equation.

The only other data point specific to humans is our weight.


I found the absurd over-precision more problematic. There probably were exactly that many people in the USA at some instant in time in this century. For a minute or two at most. 310 million is a more sensible way to report the population.
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