I thought that a while ago. It hasn't happened yet but that doesn't mean it won't. And even if it doesn't implode, it could certainly decline significantly.
A HUGE amount of the "free" services and content that pretty much all of us take so much for granted around the web are directly or indirectly supported by online advertising. Take that away and, as you say, it will be interesting.
The web is 20 years old. I think if this was going to happen, it would have happened by now.
Outside of a few niches, people just aren't willing to pay to read websites.
What I could see happening is premium content being bundled by ISPs. Pay for X package from Y ISP, get content from A, B and C websites. Kind-of like how TV channels are bundled.
In all likelihood though, I think advertising will continue as is. Advertisers will just come up with cleverer ways of presenting it.
BTW, I agree, but I think the opposite is the case. I strongly suspect that in fact we'll see more content as the ad economy collapses. People don't understand just how much content is driven without ads for other reasons (like HN itself) and once more and more content gets locked behind subscription walls that indeed opens the door for free content to thrive. Combine this with strong, pervasive ad blocking and what you have is a recipe for the return of the free web.
Probably never. I'd venture that the overwhelming majority of users on the internet do not even understand the concept of the ad model, much less the downsides.
To them the internet and everything on it is free (and what isn't free is just greed by the owner) and ads are these annoying thing that crop up everywhere.
I think there will actually be a certain amount of this; that is, advertising dollars will migrate to the web, at the expense of traditional media. That being said, overall ad spending will fall, spending on traditional media will get hammered, and online ad spending will also get hurt, just not as much as traditional advertising.
It would be interesting to see the shift from decades old advertising pattern to membership. I wonder what will happen to the general Internet and the future companies when advertising itself is scorned down upon. There is a reason why adverts were invented, so that every company isn't a walled garden. We live in interesting times!
Om Malik thinks so. I'm arguing that there is a lot more online advertising coming our way, but with highly targeted technologies, it won't seem like it.
I don't mean that ads will completely go away as the bubble burst. There are several kinds of online ads, and I am particularly talking about third-party tracking ads for example.
I think the ad-based business model for internet companies could possibly be toppled in the next few years:
1. The ads are becoming increasingly ineffective, the CTR keeps falling, even as the ads are being personally customized. People are growing biological ad-blockers that block ads subconsciously. There is an interesting theory of "Peak Advertisement": http://peakads.org/.
2. The value of digital assets/services are being recognized, and people are more willing to pay for online services.
So maybe in the future internet companies will rely more on customer's subscription fee + ads that are more transparent (sponsored content).
Quite optimistic views there. Most content doesn't have a real monetary value beyond generating views. There won't be an acceptable ads consortium, advertisers will only get more ruthless or die.
I can't see anyone pining for any good old' days of Web advertising. Please sir, may I have some more popups?
What will really happen in the scenario you outline is either users will stop using the site (as much or at all) because of the escalation in the ad arms race, and/or wait until ad-blocking software stops those kinds of ads, too.
I think users are more forgiving of advertising that obeys the social contract (they get something out of allowing a marketer to have some of their precious time and attention).
I feel like for a long time there has been talk about online advertising collapsing because it is bad or not useful or something else.
Now I expect it will if only due to economic activity, but outside that I personally suspect online advertising continues to be used generally because folks don't see a lot of alternatives. What are they going to do? Radio ads?
The system might suck, but the internet is where folks are, anyone advertising likely needs to go there / try.
Only if it doesn't result in a competitive disadvantage. If ad spending is effective it will get done, because those who do it take market share from those who don't.
Only if it turns out that ad spending on the web is less effective overall than ad spending on traditional media the ad pie will shrink.
There are no indications that this is actually the case though. The interactivity on the web opens so much potential for much more engaging types of advertising. I hate it, but I'm afraid it's only going to increase.
Meta, Google/YouTube, Snap all have seen big drops in ad revenue. People are saying it's just temporary, but made me wonder what if we pass some sort of peak advertising moment? Cuz attention is finite. Smartphone market is saturated. So much content has been produced much of it is not even consumed. Are we going to get free stuff forever?
Reality leans the other way. What eill likely happen is that sites that used to make 100k a year from ads see their revenue drop to 70k then 50k then 30k. To stay afloat they plaster more and worse ads in order to survive.
This is exactly what happened during the first dot com crash when we went from $35 CPM banner ads to $1. Suddenly, ads were slathered on every page or websites simply disappeared. What we really need is a deal that works well for all three parties: advertisers, consumers and content providers. Google Adsense was this perfect solution for a while (until it got optimized to max profitability).
Maybe online advertising is like social networks and can only enjoy brief moments of relative balance before the cycle starts anew.
A HUGE amount of the "free" services and content that pretty much all of us take so much for granted around the web are directly or indirectly supported by online advertising. Take that away and, as you say, it will be interesting.
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