Yeah, that was what I was assuming as well. I would ask the range, they'd give one, I'd flinch at the top-end of it and inevitably they'd come up 5%ish percent right away. From there I was generally able to wind up 10-20% above top of the original band.
If you know how the right amount feels, it really does not matter one bit how far off your initial measurement is. You start with an amount too low, and you add more until it feels right. If the amount you start with is 24% too low vs 20% too low bears no significance. Obviously you shouldn't start with an amount so far off as to be too high, but again that would never happen if you are going by feel.
That's like 5% or so, for the first one. Could easily be significant.
It's also probably worth mentioning that the range of those values is likely less than 10, in that the answer is never going to be greater than 9 or less than 2. That should make any movement have more significance.
Good question! I used 0.5 out of habit, but I do need to do some more experimenting with this parameter. But yes, intuitively it should probably be low. I'll do some experiments in the morning and see if it works well at 0.
The results around 22 aren't too surprising: most people will probably quickly figure out that the target cannot possibly be above 66.67, but few will realize that this implies that the target will be below 44.44. If you assume the guesses will be randomly distributed from 0 - 66, you get a target of 22, which isn't a bad guess for most of the times this experiment was performed on the proles.
That is an interesting chart. Apparently the breakpoint between medium and high is 70, and some just barely squeaked in under that in the upper 60s. That doesn’t inspire a lot is confidence.
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