I think nuclear is a technology that is beyond what the current human society can support - we really are not ready for the technology until we deal with uneducated masses, fundamentalism, techno-literacy etc
1. You are comparing all of tesla models to individual models from other brands
2. You want to speculate on the future market, go ahead, I dont think Tesla has any special position on lithium batteries.
3. Solar is not a hockey stick, not sure what trend lines you are talking about.
4. Talk to anyone working on self driving cars and they will tell you level 5 is at least 10 years away. Can a tesla drive on icey road in northern canada in blizzard conditions with a couple failed sensors? Nope, then it is not level 5.
I bet you I have spend much more time then you analyzing. And I know about all the different targets from all the different car makers. They actually have public plans of how many EV they will build (and very often they actually fall short of their own plans).
More importantly I know about global battery capacity and how new capacity gets added and how much. I also know how much lithium, cobalt and nickel is mined and how much needs to be mined for the global industry.
You still believe that Tesla is some small player that is gone get crushed by the larger competition. Tesla has a higher market cap, easier time to raise cash, is the largest consumer of Li-Ion, has the largest long term supply contracts for materials, is close partner to all major battery producers (LG,CATL,Panasonic) and they are by far the most vertically integrated and they will soon add their own batteries to mix. In a 3-4 years Tesla will be one of the bigger battery producers in the world themselves.
We also know have a good idea how long it takes car makers to produce new vehicles and secure the supply chain. Look at 'all in on EV' GM, they are building a massive battery factory that by 2025 will be smaller then Giga Nevada is right now. In that same time Tesla plans to build another factory that will more then double or triple output of current Nevada and Giga Nevada will continue to grow as well.
Ford has no supply chain at all in North America and relies on LG in Poland. We know about how much output is planned from there and most of that is not for Ford. Ford has already realized that their idea of just 'buying what in the market' will limited them a huge amount.
Batteries can not be magically created, nor can lithium mines. We already know about all the battery factories that will go online and we know where they will send most of their supply. Nobody will catch up to Tesla in the next couple years.
1. Nope. Are you just pulling numbers from a hat? Nissan sold 14,000 leafs last year, add that to the 24,000 volts and the 8,000 i3s and you get more than the model S.
2. Im saying the current business is minuscule, if we looked at elons promises as gospel (which you apparently do) we would have had a model x three years ago. LGchem and Samsung SDI are more than capable to meet the demand of the current lithium battery market without panasonic.
3. Speculation
4. Tesla has a SAE level 1 system which is the same as my VW golfs adaptive cruise with lane assist. They sell the car with the "hardware" and you think they are done? -> " All we have to do is build the controls and software now!!" By this logic throwing a couple cameras on the car means it has "self-driving hardware".
> I just opted for a 2022 Nissan Leaf over a Tesla Model 3
If you want Leaf because you want lower price, feel free. No problem with it.
But if you think the electronics or architecture in the Leaf are superior in any you are simply wrong.
> I really really really want to like Tesla, but this is beyond insane.
You are simply wrong on your assumptions about how Tesla works.
Yes Tesla has unified a lot of functionality into one core system, but literally every car maker is copping that strategy. In fact the older 10-100s of chips distributed system talking over buses was actually much, much more prone to bugs.
Even if that main system fails, the Tesla can still drive, this has been shown often by many people who rebuild Tesla or had issues with the core computation.
> I sincerely hope that SpaceX avionics are not designed this way.
Go look at the teardown and analysis of Tesla. Seriously, I highly recommend Sandy Munro. They do incredibly detailed teardowns of cars including Tesla. They have been doing it for decade and their business is selling that information to other car makers for (50k a pop).
Its actually the other way around. Tesla cars are designed more like SpaceX rockets or fighter
jets in terms of electronics.
You can actually get their documents of the BMW i3 for just 10$ and you can basically rebuild the car yourself.
And literally everything they said about Tesla in terms of electronics was positive and well ahead of industry standards.
> It also has a 12V lead-acid battery that can power all the electronics if the main power system totally eats itself
So does every Tesla except new generation Model S. They have a 12V LiIon battery instead. And it has the same function as in a Leaf.
Elon has for a long time wanted to switch to 48V systems but they have not managed it yet. I hope they will get it with next generation Y or the Cybertruck.
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