The tricky part about a wager is that it gives people a strong incentive to reinterpret events to their advantage, and its tough to define this in an objective way. Even if it is defined objectively there is ambiguity in language and again they may not realize they disagree on what they are wagering about.
But maybe in a few days when I get paid again I could make a wager if there was some agreement on what we were wagering. I have a feeling that once that got pinned down you wouldn't want to continue the wager.
2021 is four years from now. Do you really think that, in the next four years, this early rider program https://waymo.com/apply/ won't progress to allowing rides without the supervisor employee present on some rides? Once they have that working on a regular basis, should we not assume they will start charging for rides? They could actually do that now for certain routes and times if they had the government sign off on it. So it is feasible (although unlikely) that you could lose the bet tomorrow.
There are several other advanced self-driving vehicle programs out there including Cruise, Uber, etc. They are also using the LIDAR technology and detailed maps etc. Audi has announced they will have a 'level 4' self pilot mode for freeways in 2020-2021 https://media.audiusa.com/models/piloted-driving They announced that in 2017 (or maybe 2016) because they have been partnering with nVidia and saw nVidia actually demonstrated deep neural network autonomous driving. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmVWLr0X1Sk
You seem to have a more liberal interpretation of "somewhat limited" than I do.
I have ascribed a 45% chance to this statement, and last year bet $500 against it taking place:
"By July 2023, a self-driving car can be reliably hailed by a member of the general public in at least 10 North American cities. At least 8 cities must be outside the San Fransisco Bay Area. The car must available on at least 50% of days, i.e., not confined to very narrow weather or traffic situations. No back-up human may be physically present to take over in an emergency."
50% of days in any city means it can handle Minnesota snow and ice.
As you have stated it, implying the car can go anywhere at any time (no constraints on routes mentioned) and is available in most major cities, that's very speculative that it would be deployed to that degree.
It will be deployed within a few years although with some reasonable constraints and it will be extremely useful even with those constraints.
Edit: Actually, looking at that statement again, some of what I read as implied is actually just ambiguous. I would make the bet if I could correct the ambiguous parts to be more realistic.
The tricky part about a wager is that it gives people a strong incentive to reinterpret events to their advantage, and its tough to define this in an objective way. Even if it is defined objectively there is ambiguity in language and again they may not realize they disagree on what they are wagering about.
But maybe in a few days when I get paid again I could make a wager if there was some agreement on what we were wagering. I have a feeling that once that got pinned down you wouldn't want to continue the wager.
2021 is four years from now. Do you really think that, in the next four years, this early rider program https://waymo.com/apply/ won't progress to allowing rides without the supervisor employee present on some rides? Once they have that working on a regular basis, should we not assume they will start charging for rides? They could actually do that now for certain routes and times if they had the government sign off on it. So it is feasible (although unlikely) that you could lose the bet tomorrow.
There are several other advanced self-driving vehicle programs out there including Cruise, Uber, etc. They are also using the LIDAR technology and detailed maps etc. Audi has announced they will have a 'level 4' self pilot mode for freeways in 2020-2021 https://media.audiusa.com/models/piloted-driving They announced that in 2017 (or maybe 2016) because they have been partnering with nVidia and saw nVidia actually demonstrated deep neural network autonomous driving. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmVWLr0X1Sk
GM, Ford, Honda, Tesla have all made announcements that they plan to deploy self driving vehicles on or before 2021. https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-timeline...
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