Insurance cost isn't about the number of customers, it's about risk distribution and concentration. Flood insurance in high-risk areas is expensive because claims are frequent, large and concentrated (large percentage of customers making claims at the same time).
Unless future drivers become more accident-prone than today's drivers, their premiums will be similar. I don't see much incentive for adverse selection.
The point GP was making is that as autonomous vehicles replace manual, the likelihood of an inter-vehicular accident should also fall for the remaining manual vehicles, lowering their premiums. A nice positive externality - more reason to subsidize autonomous vehicles.
Unless future drivers become more accident-prone than today's drivers, their premiums will be similar. I don't see much incentive for adverse selection.
The point GP was making is that as autonomous vehicles replace manual, the likelihood of an inter-vehicular accident should also fall for the remaining manual vehicles, lowering their premiums. A nice positive externality - more reason to subsidize autonomous vehicles.
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