If those states were measurably less safe wouldn't that be reflected in insurance premiums? Mechanical failure is inconsequential compared to boring old human factors (distractions, alcohol, bad decisions) when it comes to dangers on the road.
The problem is that there are confounding factors.
States with regular inspections tend to have more expensive cars, higher wealth, higher traffic density and so on. Those factors are going to drive insurance rates up as well.
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