Sorry, I could have been more clear. I didn't mean that a recession is a black swan event, but that the specific nature of the housing crisis is considered a black swan.
More concretely, a recession is more predictable and to be expected while the failure of the mortgage-backed security market (and the broader consequences) less so.
How is something that happens regularly a black swan event?
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_recessions_in_the_United...
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