Never underestimate the persuasive power of a regime murdering several thousand people in plain sight. I remember thinking the same thing about the Arab Spring in 2009.
I generally agree with you but it's a lot easier for the west to turn a blind eye to the middle east or Africa (especially post fracking) than it is to turn a blind eye to the far east. By virtue of their standards of living, deep economic ties and stable governments the more developed parts of the far east are basically honorary Europe in the west's mind and that comes with higher expectations of civility.
It's really hard to predict where the "fuck it, you've gone too far, we can't do nothing this time" line is. Remember, basically everyone else in Asia is rooting for the west to cut china off economically so they can fill China's manufacturing role.
I agree that unless the Chinese really butcher people it will be business as usual but the chance of some viral video lighting a fire under the politician's asses is not to be discounted, especially when the current US administration has taken a policy line that means they will play up these kinds of things for negotiating leverage.
Edit: by "honorary Europe" I mean they have similar standards of living, similar strong and stable government institutions and with that comes the expectation that they won't just drive tanks over people at the drop of a hat. Basically, they're rich enough that we expect them to handle the problem in what we consider the "right way".
What do you mean when you say "honorary Europe", because I am certain it does not mean what I expect it to mean: A fundamentally fair and well-functioning society with very few if any governmental killings and high stability within it's borders.
It's warm, they like seafood, they used to have a big empire and they're a part of Europe. Is there a specific direction you had in mind for my reading, making this a worthy comment instead of an empty bit of snark?
I consider it one of the first major climate crisis shifts, after large record heat year in 2010 and drought in the region. Climate refugees were forced into cities and in closer proximity flaming sectarian and cultural divides. These tensions were easily absconded upon by those who wanted to make something better for their particular in group.
Remember that the Arab spring was sparked off not by a climate refugee, but rather a street salesman, who publicly committed suicide via self-isolation after being brutalized by Tunisian police. Don't get me wrong, I think you're actually right, but there are many, many other factors involved.
AFAICT, that’s ironically that’s the main reason why the CCP can paint the protesters in a bad light.
Look at what happened in Libya, Syria, Egypt, etc. Do you want your country to become like that? Do you want to welcome an American intervention, and the joy and prosperity it brought to Iraq? Do you want to invite Western management of capitalism and the success it wrought in Russia in the 90’s?
You can disagree with the CCP’s premise, but US actions in the Middle East, and perceived US meddling in the world has done more to reinforce the CCP’s rule than any other country. And if there’s one thing East Asian cultures really dislike in society, it’s uncleanliness and disharmony. In particular, China’s history is one civil war and famine after another, with a period of peace in between, and the West seems to fundamentally misunderstand how they think over there.
I’d wager that the CCP can open fire with machine guns on the protesters and they might even be cheered on in the mainland. But they probably won’t, perhaps even fearing in the back of their mind what an example that will set in some later time. How would they justify that? That it’s okay to light into American-supported protesters? Who have had it so good for so long in the gilded city of theirs? And make no mistake, there is a tone of anti-mainland on the HK’ers part that can be easily construed as snobbery as well. That would all be a sort of nationalism you can’t walk back on easily.
To that end, you should not suppose that when a revolution in China — as it inevitably will — will be produce a government friendly to your values. It did not happen in Russia, it hasn’t been happening anywhere in the Middle East, even in Iraq where the US poured a trillion into the effort, and Europe is arguably weaker for what has been happening there as well.
China is a behemoth. Even if they storm Hong Kong with soldiers and beat the protesters bloody, many leaders won't stand up to China, mainly because Pooh Bear is a bully and too many countries rely on China financially.
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