Tesla M3 SR+ is advertised as 240mi (386Km) EPA in the US vs. 409Km WLTP in the EU, a 6% difference. The LR is 310mi (~500Km) EPA vs. 560Km WLTP, a 12% difference. Assuming the tests are designed in such a way that for some reason they start to diverge massively the longer the range (6% at 240mi but 12% at 310mi) then for an ID.3 with a 210mi range there is no reason at this point to assume 15% difference but rather under 10%.
Given that you obviously know the numbers your extrapolation, while it may turn out to be true, seems more bad faith than reasonable assumption at this point.
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