History has shown that user experience is the most powerful force in computing, at least at the consumer level and increasingly in other areas too. People will trade privacy, security, cost, freedom, openness, and virtually any other quality for ease of use.
I hypothesize that the reason for this is time poverty, not lack of expertise or desire to learn. People are more time-poor today than even 20 years ago. Even people who know computers well and could figure out how to use more DIY systems do not have time to do so.
I have a rule of thumb when designing systems: each step required to install or use something halves the number of people who will try it. If 1000 people discover something with a 10-step install, only 1-2 of them will actually try it. Remove a few steps and that number doubles a few times. Most successful "viral" apps have three or fewer steps.
Decentralized, federated, and generally more open systems have been consistently unable to deliver anything close to the ease of use of vertically integrated systems.
I hypothesize that the reason for this is time poverty, not lack of expertise or desire to learn. People are more time-poor today than even 20 years ago. Even people who know computers well and could figure out how to use more DIY systems do not have time to do so.
I have a rule of thumb when designing systems: each step required to install or use something halves the number of people who will try it. If 1000 people discover something with a 10-step install, only 1-2 of them will actually try it. Remove a few steps and that number doubles a few times. Most successful "viral" apps have three or fewer steps.
Decentralized, federated, and generally more open systems have been consistently unable to deliver anything close to the ease of use of vertically integrated systems.
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