A couple thoughts spring to mind including both your standard, “it takes a while to get everyone in to get one of these,” coupled with a growing distrust of expert medical advice.
A member of my own extended family is still convinced this is a giant conspiracy by [insert flavor of the week here] to [insert flavor of the week here]. I doubt that they get the vaccine no matter how fast it’s available.
I know the goal of vaccines isn’t realistically 100% deployment, but it feels there is going to be some lag here too.
My hunch is a return to normalcy looks more like everyone wearing masks in public for the next few years, with increased distancing in confined spaces (more sweeping WFH policies!) while we wait for adoption of the vaccine.
"I doubt that they get the vaccine no matter how fast it’s available."
A lot of anti-vaxxers may start begging for or even insisting on getting the vaccine once they see enough unvaccinated people around them dropping like flies.
I wish that was true but the flare-up of conspiracist nonsense on my neighborhood mailing list today makes that pretty hard to believe. Maybe if Facebook shutdown.
A big factor is going to be how effective the vaccine is and what R0 will end up being. One of the key factors in determining the percentage of the population which needs to be vaccination is how quickly it spreads and this is definitely not on the favorable side of that range.
The hope is that a yearly vaccine will Protect enough to reduce mortality like we do with flu shots. Both R0 and milder symptoms of you are infected. Both of these fees into each other. I do think that mask culture is in our Kong term future.
Ditto: this spreads well enough that I’m not expecting a vaccine to be enough at first, although there will be a huge number of very motivated people working to improve effectiveness over time just as with previous diseases which are now almost forgotten.
I know for an absolute indisputable fact I far know more than the average doctor, media pundit, and typical low IQ uninformed HN commenter who parroted "Masks don't work" for a full month while the epidemic spread. Exile those guys. Send them to hades for all I am concerned, they are personally responsible for the deaths of thousands. They would get the death penalty if there was any justice at all.
Ignorantly downvote and mock me for not accepting all that these fake authorities claim, that's fine. To hell with the mockers as well when they are ignorant self-righteous self-important anti-scientific politically motivated imbecile hacks that cockadoodle whatever they heard from their daily talking head. That's foolish. I decide what is scientific and valid. Science isn't based on deference to authority. It's dependent on rationalism and reproducible evidence.
A couple thoughts spring to mind including both your standard, “it takes a while to get everyone in to get one of these,” coupled with a growing distrust of expert medical advice.
A member of my own extended family is still convinced this is a giant conspiracy by [insert flavor of the week here] to [insert flavor of the week here]. I doubt that they get the vaccine no matter how fast it’s available.
I know the goal of vaccines isn’t realistically 100% deployment, but it feels there is going to be some lag here too.
My hunch is a return to normalcy looks more like everyone wearing masks in public for the next few years, with increased distancing in confined spaces (more sweeping WFH policies!) while we wait for adoption of the vaccine.
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