100% agree. The housing market in the bay area will go down even more. The last year changes in tax rules such as lower deduction for mortgage interest and municipal taxes had already weakened the market. With RSUs going down, even less people will be able to buy housing, driving the price down. I think my house lost 8% in the last year, pre-COVID19. Sucks for me as a home owner, but I really believed the housing market was over-inflated. If we have layoffs, in FAANGs, I suspect a lot of folks will not be able to pay there mortgage.
> With RSUs going down, even less people will be able to buy housing, driving the price down.
If we use the SP500 as a benchmark for RSU valuation, in 2020 those regressed, at their lows for the year, to mid 2017. They are currently at September of last year. In the past year, SP500 is up a quarter percent. I don't think tech workers were doomed in 2019, and nobody was buying a house on the assumption that RSUs would appreciate at 50 percent per annum.
> If we have layoffs, in FAANGs, I suspect a lot of folks will not be able to pay their mortgage.
Indeed million dollar mortgages are high stakes. If foreclosures actually become an issue I imagine the politicians will step in to bail someone out. Maybe the lenders, but probably homeowners directly since they vote. It's entirely possible we see a democratic congress throw out the SALT limits from the tax reforms.
I wouldn't count on it. The mortgage market is divided between conventional and jumbo loans[1]. Any bail outs will likely focus on conventional mortgages. The current administration seems to relish in screwing over blue states, and the house of representatives has a long list of negotiating priorities. They might be able to negotiate the SALT limits, but I don't see jumbo loan bail outs making the cut.
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