I wonder how much people changed their behavior in sunbelt states in July when cases were on the rise. I don't remember lots of new restrictions or lockdowns. New cases just kinda peaked.
I'm cautiously optimistic that the past week in the US is a blip from Labor day. Both peaks and troughs are improved from two weeks ago, but up from the week before.
There's definitely a dynamic with x% of the population distancing always, x% of the population not social distancing always, and then a certain percent that are oscillating between getting afraid and then feeling safe again - and that's what is keeping the replication rate around 1.
There were supposed to be spikes after spring break, Memorial Day, 4th of July, Labor Day, back to school, the Sturgis bike rally. There were a blip...if that.
Rather than biting our nails at daily numbers it's time to allow for individual choice and remove the government restrictions. It's clear that the virus is not nearly as potent as people think and we're prolonging this due to fear and politics - not science or numbers.
Individual choice is not really applicable in this situation. Everyone that gets sick becomes very likely to get someone else sick. You're not just choosing for yourself, you're choosing for them, which isn't good.
And there have been lots of spikes among the groups that actually changed behavior drastically, especially in places like colleges.
I'm cautiously optimistic that the past week in the US is a blip from Labor day. Both peaks and troughs are improved from two weeks ago, but up from the week before.
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