I'm not talking about the vaccine aspect of the trial, just the placebo arm where they did the antibody tests. I hadn't seen their 90 day update, so thanks for that.
Your original statement that there were few documented reinfections. They found 30 of them here under controlled study conditions, and prior infection provided less than 50% protection against B.1.351.
To my knowledge, there hasn't been a controlled study like this in Brazil. The in vitro results you cited suggest that while the immune escape of P.1 is not as great as B.1.351, it still is very substantial, and reinfection will occur in a substantial number of patients.
Per the Washington Post just two days ago [1], there have been just 71 confirmed reinfections worldwide, which is why I made that claim. Unless half of those came from that study, I’m not really sure how to square this.
I disagree with your assessment of P.1 immune escape being “very substantial” based on those in vitro results. It’s on par with the UK variant, which has no evidence - real world or otherwise - or reputation at all for widespread reinfection or vaccine escape. Never mind that in vitro results don’t even tell the whole story of an in vivo immune response. To be perfectly honest, I’m struggling to see how you’re making that claim.
Washington Post cited BNO news, which is just one guy I believe. I don't know if he's just sourcing these from news stories or what. If they're seeing 30 reinfections over 3 months in 650 study participants, you can be quite sure that there are a lot more than 71 reinfections in the world.
Your original statement that there were few documented reinfections. They found 30 of them here under controlled study conditions, and prior infection provided less than 50% protection against B.1.351.
To my knowledge, there hasn't been a controlled study like this in Brazil. The in vitro results you cited suggest that while the immune escape of P.1 is not as great as B.1.351, it still is very substantial, and reinfection will occur in a substantial number of patients.
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