I think you are right with the analysis and prediction but wrong with the conclusion.
What will happen when anyone can make a movie on their home computer that looks just as good as a Hollywood production is not that current book writers will make them. It is that the market will be flooded by visually fine, but structurally inept movies that no one will want to watch.
Ironically, what you’ve described has also happen to books to some degree. The self-published ‘Createspace’ or ‘KindleDirect’ books are usually cringeworthy.
It’s the old curator problem... if it becomes trivial to create something in a medium, it’s more important then ever to have a gatekeeper or curator to help identify the good stuff.
What will happen when anyone can make a movie on their home computer that looks just as good as a Hollywood production is not that current book writers will make them. It is that the market will be flooded by visually fine, but structurally inept movies that no one will want to watch.
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