Interesting links and info from the UK national grid. I've done some more research on the topic, and spoken with people who are closer to the topic.
tl;dr: average capacity is not going to be an issue, however peak power could very well be, and may need to be managed.
I am going to assume this is going to be very country-specific though. I've looked for the same info for France for example, which is more clear cut as it uses very little gas/oil/... in its energy production, so a priori I would have thought there is no argument of pushing the pollution from cars to power generation (but actually there may be because of peak power requirements).
Also note that this goes beyond national grids, the EU electricity market smooths things out at continental level. The UK is not synchronised with the EU grid, but it is connected. France has an excess production in general for example but all that excess is exported to other countries. Supply and demand have to be equalised at all times, and there is a real time market that can tap into quick-to-start power plants for flexibility.
I've found a very interesting 2019 report from RTE (who manages the grid). [0] Note that the highest EV transition scenario it envisages is 15 million EV by 2035, so ~35-40% of all cars, which is probably realistic, but it's far from covering requirements to change 100% of ICE cars to EVs.
1. It should hold just fine even in the high estimates of 15 million EV by 2035, which means an extra 50 TWh per year, ie 10% of the total production.
2. They also expect to grow the green power generation (nuclear, hydro, solar, wind...) by 20% during the same period, from ~500 TWh to ~600 TWh.
3. The main risk is peak power consumption, if it's not managed. If people all start charging when they come home in the evening, which matches the existing peak power usage between 7-9 pm, especially during winter, it could cause supply issues. In the worst scenarios, it could be up to 8 GW extra during what are already the highest peaks. This can be worked around by steering usage to other hours of the day, possibly even help with peaks if actively managed with vehicle-to-grid power flow, the batteries could actually flow electricity back to the grid during those peak times (there are concerns of battery life though). But this management of when people charge their cars MUST be done in the worst scenarios for at least 50% of the charging, otherwise it could threaten electric supply safety.
In short, average capacity should not be a problem in France (significant increase, but manageable and other consumption is going down). However peak capacity usage will require some adaptation, but can be handled.
tl;dr: average capacity is not going to be an issue, however peak power could very well be, and may need to be managed.
I am going to assume this is going to be very country-specific though. I've looked for the same info for France for example, which is more clear cut as it uses very little gas/oil/... in its energy production, so a priori I would have thought there is no argument of pushing the pollution from cars to power generation (but actually there may be because of peak power requirements).
Also note that this goes beyond national grids, the EU electricity market smooths things out at continental level. The UK is not synchronised with the EU grid, but it is connected. France has an excess production in general for example but all that excess is exported to other countries. Supply and demand have to be equalised at all times, and there is a real time market that can tap into quick-to-start power plants for flexibility.
I've found a very interesting 2019 report from RTE (who manages the grid). [0] Note that the highest EV transition scenario it envisages is 15 million EV by 2035, so ~35-40% of all cars, which is probably realistic, but it's far from covering requirements to change 100% of ICE cars to EVs.
1. It should hold just fine even in the high estimates of 15 million EV by 2035, which means an extra 50 TWh per year, ie 10% of the total production.
2. They also expect to grow the green power generation (nuclear, hydro, solar, wind...) by 20% during the same period, from ~500 TWh to ~600 TWh.
3. The main risk is peak power consumption, if it's not managed. If people all start charging when they come home in the evening, which matches the existing peak power usage between 7-9 pm, especially during winter, it could cause supply issues. In the worst scenarios, it could be up to 8 GW extra during what are already the highest peaks. This can be worked around by steering usage to other hours of the day, possibly even help with peaks if actively managed with vehicle-to-grid power flow, the batteries could actually flow electricity back to the grid during those peak times (there are concerns of battery life though). But this management of when people charge their cars MUST be done in the worst scenarios for at least 50% of the charging, otherwise it could threaten electric supply safety.
In short, average capacity should not be a problem in France (significant increase, but manageable and other consumption is going down). However peak capacity usage will require some adaptation, but can be handled.
[0] https://web.archive.org/web/20190515131031/https://www.rte-f...
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