Among others, Japan and South Korea will get nuclear weapons. Taiwan had a nuclear weapons program in the past, and in the '95-'96 Taiwan Straits crisis, its president made a declaration hinting at restarting the program [1], only to backpedal a few days later, presumably due to international pressure (mainly from the US). Taiwan currently has nuclear power plants, so, if it wants to procure Plutonium for weapons, it can. For the time being, it appears Taiwan is not trying at this point to acquire nukes, mainly because it still thinks the US security umbrella is sufficient.
South Korea and especially Japan are much closer to being able to build nukes, if they so desire. I personally heard the former US defense secretary, Robert Gates, stating that he thinks Japan can get nukes in a matter of weeks.
So, if China takes over Taiwan, there won't be anything in the world to stop Japan from getting nukes, and South Korea may join the party too.
nuclear fussion and fission are two very different reactions. It would require significant amount of work to transfer the content of power planet to an atomic bomb
Not sure what you're getting at. The spent rods from nuclear reactors contain Plutonium, which is quite trivial to separate chemically. If Japan wants to do that it can certainly can do it (and it's likely they already stockpiled some Plutonium for a rainy day). Plutonium can then be used to make a Nagasaki-type bomb. Nothing to do with fusion. If someone wants to go further and make a hydrogen bomb (i.e. fusion-based), that's also possible, but fission-based atomic bombs are good enough to provide deterrence.
Well, in your case, it would still require extensive testing, it's not a flip the coin kind of thing, otherwise you are effectively setting off a nuclear bomb on your homeland.
I have heard people claim that TSMC has plans to destroy their own facilities scorched earth style in case of a takeover. I don’t know how credible those claims are but if true and if they were executed that would have huge ramifications on the global economy. We are already seeing how a more minor disruption in the case of covid is still having big effects in terms of chip shortages causing car manufacturing lines to stop and such.
Hopefully the US and it's allies continue conducting freedom of navigation operations throughout the region in order to preserve access to international waters for everyone.
Like the U.S. seizing the Panama Canal and nearby lands in the Operation Just Cause(U.S. Invasion of Panama), in order to preserve access to international waters for everyone, right?
It is also ridiculous to say the U.S. conducting the Freedom of navigation, because the U.S. has not signed nor ratified the convention. The U.S. only use its name to enlarge its militarily pressure.
EDIT: forgot to mention not the Taiwan Straits nor the South China Sea is international waters, they are Chinese territorial waters.
When the KMT left the mainland and set up shop in Taiwan as the communists took over China, they brought with them loads and loads of Chinese cultural treasures. Now might be a good time to trade those treasures back to China in return for future independence. That sounds like a fair deal for both sides.
China may think they can just invade Tawain and take the treasures back but by now they are all probably buried deep under Cheyenne Mountain.
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