The developer mindshare really matters to apple. As long as they are on apple devices, some significant fraction of them will be creating software for apple devices. Without 3rd party software, apple is toast.
Do you believe that most developers are up in arms about this, ready to abandon the platform? I doubt more than a tiny fraction really care about this at all, and the hysterics on HN (threads brigaded by a small, small percentage of HN users) are not representative. Claims of some massive sales drop -- or even a sales drop at all -- are deluded nonsense.
Apple is delaying this, I suspect, because it confuses the privacy message: If every time they talk about privacy someone can make them look like hypocrites by pointing out the on-device scanning, well that's just ugly for Apple. I suspect the on-device scanning element is going to be removed and it'll be on ingress to iCloud, which is what I said on my very first post to this. It was ill-considered given Apple's privacy push.
Most? Probably not. But developers are more sensitive to privacy issues in general, because they work in the most privacy invasive industry that ever existed. They know how much corporations dig into your stuff, and they might have even implemented some of it. At least speaking personally, I know my purchasing behavior changed on Amazon when I worked for them and realized how much they tracked me.
More importantly, there is an oligopoly in tech and up until now, only one of the manufacturers of tech devices cared about privacy. And to that extent, I wouldn't be surprised if vast majority of developers who care about privacy have biased themselves towards apple. And now they have a reason to treat apple like every other privacy invading company.
> And now they have a reason to treat apple like every other privacy invading company.
That’s right. I like the idea that on android, I can use stock tools like rsync to manage the photos/music on my phone. With Apple it’s been a constant battle against iTunes to do those basic things. The only reason I chose Apple last time I bought a phone is because I’m willing to sacrifice a bit of convenience for the perception of better security/privacy. If they lose on that front, then I’ll hop to whichever phone is easiest for me to use the way I want to.
> Predictions of some massive sales drop -- or even a sales drop at all -- are deluded nonsense.
I remember, when that recalcitrant dentist was dragged of a United plane, endless predictions of United's imminent demise, people would never fly United again, yada yada yada. Needless to say, nothing much happened.
> I suspect the on-device scanning element is going to be removed and it'll be on ingress to iCloud, which is what I said on my very first post to this. It was ill-considered to do it on device given Apple's privacy push.
Not sure about that. Apple's approach (private set intersection run on half client, half server) preserves more privacy than scanning it in the cloud, and leaves the door open for E2EE.
> The developer mindshare really matters to apple.
The developers are going nowhere so long as the money is there to be made from iOS.
Did they all quit when it was revealed that Apple was part of PRISM? Of course not. They barely blinked.
It doesn't matter if a billion developers sign a petition. It's empty. The vast majority of them will promptly capitulate if Apple goes forward. By vast majority I mean 99%.
Did you see all the people desperately fleeing from Australia due to the rise of the extremist police state there? Nope. Did you see the tens of millions of people flee from the US when the Patriot Act was passed or PRISM was revealed? Nope. Did you see everyone rapidly flood over to mainland Europe as Britain became a police state? Nope. How about the hundreds of millions of people fleeing out of China over the past decade with the rise of Xi and the entire demolition of all human rights in China? Nope. Perhaps you're spotting a predictable human nature trend in all of this.
All the tech employees of Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, etc. They've all quit in droves over the past decade over human rights abuses - including vast privacy abuses - and concerns for what these companies are doing? Whoops, no, the exact opposite. There was a price for their integrity as it turns out, and they grabbed the money, which is what most people do.
The iOS developers are going nowhere, either. Besides the fact that their livelihoods depend on it, there's no vast green field to run to from what's happening. Sure, some might change jobs, or switch industry segments, it will be a small group though. It's going on in just about every liberal democracy simultaneously. What huge platform are developers going to flee to that's better and is never going to feature forced on-device scanning spyware? It's coming for Android too, bet on it.
iOS is where all the profitable users are. While that holds true, developers will be there to sell things to the profitable users.
The principled indie developers might leave in protest, and that would be a terrible loss for the platform's soul, but realistically the vast bulk of money flowing through the App Store is not going to the indie developers.
Hmm, having experienced the influx of 1.5 million people into an area smaller than Alberta, and the social consequeces in the last 5 years, i'd say you are being very glib. Thr shit show is just starting.
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