I'd be interested though. While you say priors are off, I'd be very interested in quantifying how off if the two of you wouldn't mind indulging a fool's curiosity.
Like I've met people who could actually give a convincing argument that cars haven't necessarily been the unambiguous tradeoff many believe them to be throw knock on effects in infrastructure and planning.
However, there is also the qualitative look at things as well. Numbers in absolute magnitude we're lower back then, so maybe there's something psychological at work with the larger numbers. There was also a smaller population, lower hanging fruit, the attraction of some level of unknown.
The thing I find most interesting in these disengagements is that they always occur right before people come to terms with "oh, I have to actually lay out my priors." Which is generally, in my experience, where the root of every fundamental misunderstanding is to be found.
So the absolute general term "people were better off in 2019 than they were in 1919, and this was because of investment," is what I was arguing against. It really depends on how you quantify it and what metrics you use.
For example, farmers with land in 1919 could at least live off it and make a living and feed a family off say 40 acres. Many farmers had their own land and would subsequently start losing it in the 1920s-today due to increase efficiency of farming which requires more land to make the same amount of money. I would argue farmers certainly were better off in 1919 than today, at least in terms of net income.
Now, today, that same family doesn't own land, is probably living in an apartment working for a company that is looking for ways to be more efficient through automation and outsourcing. It's very possible they are struggling to feed their family off a single income, so they have to have dual income. It's very possible one or both lose their job for an extended period of time due to market fluctuation. It's very possible they lose their apartment. I would argue that if that family had 40 acres in 1919, they wouldn't be as dependent on someone else for their livelihood, if nothing else, and could at least feed themselves. Any ability to feed themselves today if all that happened would be due to government programs, not market investment.
Generally when people say "people are better off now ...", they are talking about technology. For example indoor plumbing and electric. Everyone has it now and it's relatively cheap. Back then it was a luxury. So as far as that goes, I would say people have it better today than in 1919. Perhaps not the average poor person on Skid Row who doesn't benefit from indoor plumbing or electricity. I would argue that indoor plumbing and electricity was more government spending / investment than market investment though.
Computers weren't a thing back then, so that doesn't really apply. Again back to agricultural efficiency, computers harmed the average/poor farmer and only helped the large land owners.
Also keep in mind a lot of people were farmers in 1919.
Like I've met people who could actually give a convincing argument that cars haven't necessarily been the unambiguous tradeoff many believe them to be throw knock on effects in infrastructure and planning.
However, there is also the qualitative look at things as well. Numbers in absolute magnitude we're lower back then, so maybe there's something psychological at work with the larger numbers. There was also a smaller population, lower hanging fruit, the attraction of some level of unknown.
The thing I find most interesting in these disengagements is that they always occur right before people come to terms with "oh, I have to actually lay out my priors." Which is generally, in my experience, where the root of every fundamental misunderstanding is to be found.
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