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I lean towards the accidental lab escape theory, given the work the Wuhan lab was known to be doing, while only being a level 3 lab, and that the first cases originated in a nearby market, it feels like it satisfies Occams shaving implement.

As for why there were no previous wild outbreaks, that I can't answer,except that the people who found the origins of SARS in horseshoe bats in Yunnan didn't find the virus itself, but rather it's genetics spread across diverse strains of coronaviruses in one cave, with analysis showing the varying strains could mix. [1]

So, maybe Covid-19 is an amalgam of a novel coronavirus that was being studied, that had never reached the level of serious illness in the wild to be distinguishable from a common cold, and another coronavirus it met in Wuhan, whether in the lab or in the dense population, and became far more potent.

And of course, there's the allegations of gain of function work in the Wuhan lab.

I agree that we'll never know the truth, the CCP would never accept the loss of face of it was their researchers who accidentally unleashed it.



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