The mainland knows it needs to develop its own semi industry. It's already having issues because of US sanctions, and would likely face even more sanctions if it decided to invade Taiwan, not too mention the risk of destruction of Taiwan's facility, indeed.
On the other hand, as things stand destroying TSMC would hurt everyone, as you say. China is working on reducing that hurt because it is obviously sensible to do so, the US are also working on reducing that hurt for the same reason. But the historical and political forces are such that I don't think China would be deterred because Taiwan planned to blow up TSMC facilities...
So, IMHO this is just the US trying to make sure that China would not get TSMC fabs as that would be the worst outcome for them, not a deterrent.
It would be a deterrent to a China’s invasion as long as China is still lacking in semiconductor manufacturing. It allows Taiwan and the West to buy time. 10 years? 20 years? Who knows what will happen during that time — Xi may have died, the West will have diversified the semiconductor industry, a new generation of Chinese can grow past nationalism and recognize Taiwanese people’s will for independence.
The issue of Chinese re-unification goes beyond Xi and "nationalism" used pejoratively... Especially, China has a long history of struggling to achieve and hold national unity that dates back millenia before the CPC. This is mixed with the last two centuries of being the victim of foreign aggression.
It's not that the people in Taiwan overwhelmingly want 'independence', by that I mean that they oppose re-unification, is that they do not want the communists (which is the whole reason of the current situation in the first place), and the 'independence' camp is suiting US interests.
Ultimately I believe that the mainland is willing to sustain a level of economic pain to get hold of Taiwan but this would be calculated based on domestic politics, not TSMC's fabs.
I don't see how any of the points you raised makes the destruction of TSMC facilities less of an deterrent.
A deterrent doesn't have to be 100% effective, it just needs to have a deterrent effect.
TSMC itself also doesn't want to be subjugated by a PRC invasion. It's not just a play to protect US interests. Not sure what the motive is to portray it like that.
The mainland knows it needs to develop its own semi industry. It's already having issues because of US sanctions, and would likely face even more sanctions if it decided to invade Taiwan, not too mention the risk of destruction of Taiwan's facility, indeed.
On the other hand, as things stand destroying TSMC would hurt everyone, as you say. China is working on reducing that hurt because it is obviously sensible to do so, the US are also working on reducing that hurt for the same reason. But the historical and political forces are such that I don't think China would be deterred because Taiwan planned to blow up TSMC facilities...
So, IMHO this is just the US trying to make sure that China would not get TSMC fabs as that would be the worst outcome for them, not a deterrent.
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