$10,000 USD in 2022 dollars that SAE Level 4 is not available in standard economy cars in the next 10 years. My 2022 Corolla LE, a base model compact car, drives itself just fine (SAE Level 2) even on city streets. It would do it better with openpilot, though.
It makes Tesla Full Self Driving look like a joke, in my opinion.
> SAE Level 2 is the most practical self-driving we are ever going to get.
The bet is on this though -- what's impractical about having L4 fleets in major cities that replace Uber/Lyft? Just because you can't personally own one doesn't mean that in 10 years they can't be pretty ubiquitous and practical, particularly for city dwellers, which is most people. I'd bet that your statement is wrong on this basis. L4 cars already exist and are being used in large portions of San Francisco today.
And this is to say nothing of trucking & delivery, where self driving is in some ways easier to solve and a lot of progress is being made.
Well, not everyone lives in San Francisco, and no one wants to take an Uber literally everywhere. So, like most people, I want to own my self-driving car.
And I personally don't think the industry is mature enough to accept the realities and limitations of the technology we work with to just say, "Hey, actually, we can let attentive drivers basically be hands-free for 80+% of their drives."
Not everyone wants to own a car either, and everyone owning a car is not exactly environmentally sustainable. Replacing Uber & Lyft with robots would add a ton of value and be practical for a very large percentage of the population.
> And I personally don't think the industry is mature enough to accept the realities and limitations of the technology we work with to just say, "Hey, actually, we can let attentive drivers basically be hands-free for 80+% of their drives."
Uh isn't this what Tesla, GM, Mobileye, Comma, and many others are doing? Basically every player in "the industry" wants this & is working on it -- FWIW I think L2 is fine, but there need to be more safety features because the number of folks who've slept while their flawed L2 system drove them is truly alarming. I'm less worried about their safety and more worried about the folks they might crash into.
Even a "selfish driving car" would be a major step up - I'd think about not owning a car if I could order one on an app and have it at my doorstep in 15 minutes; even if after I get into it I take over and drive it. Self-delivering rental cars, if you will.
> Not everyone wants to own a car either, and everyone owning a car is not exactly environmentally sustainable. Replacing Uber & Lyft with robots would add a ton of value and be practical for a very large percentage of the population.
So… how much would you bet on this?
reply