Whenever I watch Geordi and Data doing something in engineering, they’re often talking to the computer about constructing models and sims and such.
To me this is the most ultimate form of declarative programming. Not that we will all be talking it out, but that we will explain in natural language what we’re after.
It maximizes how much time we spend in the “problem understanding/solving” phase and minimizes the tedium of actually setting up the apparatus.
The invention of the cotton gin simply moved people from spinning cotton to picking cotton. And increased demand for slaves.
I'm not excited to be displaced personally, but I'm also not really worried about being displaced. If displacement is inevitable, I don't see how the average programmer is going to leverage this for the "stuff of dreams". Usually, tech advancements result in a greater consolidation of wealth into the hands of those that already own capital. Recent tech is no exception. Yes, there has been a lot of wealth created for regular people, but we're still working 40+ hour weeks, and earnings have not matched the increase in productivity.
What I am concerned about is that our field is becoming increasingly arcane magic for the younger generations, especially the masses that are being completely and utterly failed by the education system.
I apologize ahead of time for rambling, but I'm with you on this!
In my coworkers and many of the applicants we see, there's a trend of over optimization. The common meme is the 'leet code' interview process.
I suppose the best way I can convey this is... I think there's hyper focus on the mechanics of doing things. Making people not afraid of the code, unaware of the world around it
Abandoning a lot of thought for process. Or even the physical systems it runs on. I recently learned about the term 'mechanical sympathy'
Sometimes it's important to ask if you need the code or system at all!
I know it's not fair to people but I groan any time I see a CS degree
I mean, yes? People will be doing math as long as there are people around to do it. It'll look different, sure. But there will always be problems, and math/programming is problem solving par excellence.
Between 2016 and 2021, I've been of the opinion that I cannot make any reasonable forecast of even vague large-scale social/technological/economic development past 2030, because the trends in technology go all funky around then.
Thanks to recent developments in AI (textual and visual), I no longer feel confident predicting any of those things past about the beginning of 2028.
These assisted coding systems are tremendously exciting but they are only the analogue of moving from a shovel to a powered excavator; it still needs a trained individual who knows what the final result needs to look like to a fairly high technical level to be effective. So, yes, 25-50 years from now humans will still be be the principal element in writing software.
I don't see a world where programming isn't the last thing to go. We pretty much have a general intelligence when a "programmer" is no longer needed. That doesn't mean programming will look anything like it does today in 200 years but will the profession, doing kinda the sameish thing, still exist? Absolutely!
It's interesting to think about. If programming can be automated away, then you can use that automation to automate away any job in the world that can be automated.
50? 25?
I'll bet the people spinning cotton thought that would endure forever.
(Sorry if my tone comes across as fervent. I'm excited to be displaced by this, because what follows is the stuff of dreams.)
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