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No?

If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver. Or consider whether you should be doing it in the first place.



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The problem is that underestimating will cause fewer tickets to be sold.

I can imagine a perverse population of customers whose elasticity function prevents the estimate from ever being correct by always buying too many tickets.

A business being less successful if they don't misrepresent reality is perfectly fine to me.

> A business being less successful if they don't misrepresent reality is perfectly fine to me

We are talking about a state government backed lottery, not a business.


> I did not know that shit was estimated.

> If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver.

Make up your mind, is estimating bad or not? The example I gave isn’t the only possible outcome, some times it’s 1-2% more than quoted when more tickets were sold.


Err, what? I never posted that first quote?

And even then, it's perfectly consistent to say that estimating is only OK if it doesn't make you look better than reality.


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