Pushing Russia to start a war ( friends with no limits was even publicly announced), see how the west reacts, but don't interfere enough ( so you won't get involved and have more time to identify weak points + weaken the enemy support - eg. Availability of artillery supplies).

Base yourself on that.

Or do you think it's a confidence the invasion started just after the Beijng Olympics ( ~ propaganda)? In the muddy season.

Not a “confidence” no, since there were rumors already a year ago that Xi asked Putin to delay the invasion based on that.

But it’s a leap from that to claiming that China indirectly master-minded the invasion of Ukraine.

I'm not saying masterminded, but it embolded Russia.

Poo-tin was already eager to show "who's boss" after he didn't get enough "attention" in ~ 2000 for his ego.

Little guys...

But was hurt in his ego because of Iraq, since it was in/near the self-claimed Russian sphere of influence and he wasn't aware until it started.

Relations between the US and Russia deteriorated after that.

He's been planning "revenge" for the next 20 years => the reference to little guys...