There is enough EV demand for Tesla to beat the Camry, RAV4 and Corolla but the cybertruck is a lost opportunity to take out more traditional larger SUVs. It and the X are just too weird.
I think there's a chance the Cybertruck design influences other companies vehicle designs. Not quite the same level but similar sharp angles. At that point it's weirdness will reduce.
It's interesting that the vehicles that cemented Tesla's legitmacy-- the Roadster and Model S-- were intentionally unobtrusive, almost to the point of looking like the generic non-licensed cars you see in video games. You could pull them up to a valet or park them at the Albertson's and not get weird stares. They didn't scream "I'm electric" unless you opened the bonnet.
The Cybertruck and to a lesser extent the Model X go the opposite direction. On the other hand, it feels like the Cybertruck is almost reducto-ad-absurdum-- trucks get bigger, more angular, more aggressive, more macho, and this feels like a sarcastic "this is the ultimate expression of it", while the Model X seems like a riff on nothing (aside from maybe the old gullwing Mercedes, but were people thinking about that when considering a family hauler?)
>> The pitch to customers for buying a hybrid is simple: Such cars are often cheaper than all-electric rivals and get some benefits of electrification with improved MPG compared with a traditional car without the headaches of having to charge like an EV.
Another aspect that I don't see often mentioned is that there are a few small market segments that simply don't have an EV option. My next car will be a hybrid, because I want a mini-van and the Toyota Sienna is a very good vehicle in that category. The Sienna is hybrid. There's no all electric minivan available in the US market.
How strictly do you want to define "minivan"? The Tesla Model X is plenty spacious, with 37 ft³ behind the rear seats or 85 ft³ if you fold down the rear seats, or you can fit in a 3rd row of seats (which reduces the space to 15 ft³). The doors go up instead of sideways, but as long as it can move all of your stuff from A to B, does it really matter which way the doors go?
It’s hazy. It depends on your need to seat either adults or small children in the third row. The X is in the size class of SUV where regular third row use is viable, but it’s still harder to work with car seats or to climb back there. A minivan’s being boxier allows a full width third row and easier access through the middle row.
Compromises in loading and unloading passengers become tiring with an SUV if your main use is city/highway transportation and you have 5+ family members. Older elementary is the only age where SUVs work fine since they don’t need any help but are small enough to easily squeeze back there (plus they think it’s fun.)
Large SUVs make fewer seating comfort/utility tradeoffs but they’re a lot more expensive than vans, so perhaps economical seating is part of the distinction. The Sienna and Pacifica are the nicest van hybrids and are around $30k less than the X.
Yes, car seats are the biggest deal if you have multiple kids in car seats (of course most people don't, so they don't think about this). We have an Odyssey because it was (is?) the only minivan with latches and a tether in all six locations, and the middle seats can be removed or slide back and forth, giving us maximum flexibility for arranging our four kids.
It's nowhere near as spacious as an Odyssey or Sienna or Caravan. Nor as nice inside, IMO. In fact, the model S actually has more usable cargo room than the X. The X is just a tall car with a sloping roof that kills all the usable space, just like all the other crossovers on the market. If you want space, you get a van. If you want a tall car that just has a high center of gravity for no reason, then you get a crossover.
Have you never seen young kids open conventional doors right into the side of an adjacent parked car? That's one of the big advantages of a minivan vs. SUV. But it does look like the upwards opening doors would solve the same problem. I'm slightly concerned that my kids would try to hang on them as they go up (I've seen it done with our garage door).
When you say a failure for cars, let's get more specific.
As far as driving experience goes, I'd say it's pretty fantastic. The handling, acceleration, level of customizability - it's unlike any ICE vehicle on the road. The fit/finish issues did exist, but they are largely a thing of the past for their mass market models (can't speak for Cybertruck.)
More importantly I'd say is how fantastic the software is. No other auto manufacturer comes anywhere close, and it's what makes the car stand out for me. I care an awful lot less about the grade of leather and the level of fit/finish when I can have a car with such a dramatically better software experience, and I expect more and more people will eventually figure this out.
Let’s see how that software is in 2050. That’s what is stopping me from getting a new car—my current car is a 2001 Pontiac and I think I reasonably have a few years left with it before my maintenance bills eclipse a car payment. What are the chances the next car I get will have that kind of longevity?
If you plan on keeping a car for 17+ years you must know you are in a small minority. And even so, I’d be more willing to bet on a manufacturer with a deep software integration. Software can be updated, and continuously improving software is where Tesla is staking its future.
In 2050 current Teslas would be 30+ years old. What world is 30 years the standard for a car lifespan? Most cars would have 250k miles by the time they’re 20, which is nearly the end of life of most vehicles. Sure you can find examples of 500k++ mile cars, but that is not the norm.
> What are the chances the next car I get will have that kind of longevity?
Almost 0. Unless you want to keep dumping loads of money into it. Even from Toyota or Honda, you aren’t going to get that kind of reliability. Which is very sad.
When you say their software is fantastic, can you get more specific.
My only experience with Teslas is rentals and the touch screen and UI were rather annoying. Especially since it was necessarily to interact with to do basically everything.
I did back to back rentals with a Camry and a Model 3 and while the Tesla had advantages, I didn’t need to think about how to do anything on the Camry.
You’re really going to have to justify this because aside from some silly things like removing ultrasonic sensors I really like my Model Y.
Fast acceleration, cheap to run, good charging network for my rare long journeys. Probably save 4 hours a year in petrol station visits. Car is preheated every morning and fully charged. In terms of my specific needs there are no downsides.
Toyota lost me simply from the dealer model. I was looking for a Grand Highlander hybrid, with preferences for certain trims and colors. Dealer told me they get what they get, and Toyota doesn’t do special orders. Oh and $10k dealer markup just because.
From what I understand, working with a nearby dealer who actually only charges MSRP (technically slightly below MSRP, but close enough), the reason for this is basically that Toyota doesn't do custom builds based on a customer's order because it saves them from having to retool lines or prevent mistakes from switching builds constantly as much as possible. So it really sort of is what they get is what they get. That said, it does really suck to deal with dealers that upcharge for no reason. Thankfully I think I managed to find a dealer which is about as close to dealing directly with Toyota as one can get. (Been waiting for the car I want, but may just end up buying a used car due to the long wait, which sucks but I can't fault the dealership for.)
I’ll admit that Toyota’s configuration offerings are more complex than Tesla’s, which creates manufacturing complexity, but they can batch the orders and tack it onto the lead time. People are now conditioned to wait for cars, post-Covid
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