Sadly I think you’re right about NATO expansion. I think a hot war with Russia was always on the table with NATO expansion. You either have to be willing to fight it to defend the expansion or you’re going to cede something to Russia when they push back.
Hot war was absolutely on the table without expansion, just look at Moldova, or Georgia. Or even Ukraine. Ukraine was already ineligible for NATO prior to 2014 as a result of the multi-decade lease of Sevastopol to the Russian Navy.
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