The US was spoiled by the Gulf War, where airpower and control of situational awareness almost let the world's 2nd largest military walk over the 4th largest.
China will have some tricks the US has not seen yet, and the US may have some tricks China has not seen. A wonder-weapon may decide several engagements.
I think the US' best chance is to gain allies. If China takes Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia are next. China is attacking their traditional allies, including Vietnamese vessels. How bad do you have to be at diplomacy to force the US and Vietnam to consider common interests? Imagine a joint Australian-Japanese task force saving a Vietnamese fishing ship from Chinese Coast Guard, and working for days to save the badly damaged vessel and get it back to port.
China has an extremely narrow window if they want to engage the US in a hot war. Their population demographics have turned negative, GDP growth has slowed considerably and the West has decoupled much quicker than they anticipated. Good luck building a consumer economy with a nation of high savers who are watching the ship sink in real time.
A disillusioned populace will mean tighter government control and even unhappier populace.
They have less than a decade left before they start a much steeper decline or face some internal revolution.
> Other than China asserting themselves, what is the point?
Dictatorships aren’t rational. That’s the flaw with one-man rule. History is filled with stupid battles fought because one dude decide to go on a field trip, as well as stupid altercations which in a weaker system would have escalated out of a need to save face [1].
Like, what did Russia stand to gain in 2022 when it invaded Ukraine? (The NATO arguments are nonsense. In part because by that measure, Russia has already lost.)
> Occupying Taiwan only burn bridges with the West. Other than China asserting themselves, what is the point?
China wants to control the sea near its coast. If they imagine a future world power that wants to oppress them, they could see that as a problem.
Controlling the sea is also a very profitable thing.
Finally, to the Chinese, controlling the sea near their coast only seems fair.
None of that would be enough to push most world powers to war, but China remembers the Opium Wars and WW2. China is deeply affected by their "100 years of humiliation."
The problem is: If China gets what it wants, it could have the power to absorb Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Australia, and many more countries. It is very tempting after invading Taiwan to reuse the same military for further expansion.
> the world's 2nd largest military walk over the 4th largest
Iraq may have had the world's 4th "largest" army, but it was nowhere near the 4th strongest military in the world.
The sheer number of people in a military means little. Spending is a much better measure of strength, and Iraq was/is a small-to-medium-sized Third World country.
P. P. O'Brien observes, based on WWII between Japan and the U.S., "that the US is basically taking an enormous gamble. The gamble is that US technology and front-line forces are so superior to the Chinese, that they can intimidate the Chinese from going to war or, if a war broke out, that they could devastate the Chinese military relatively quickly without the war turning into a longer-term war of attrition" [1]. Because if it turns into a 1:1 war of attrition, based on current production, we lose.
Expand scope to our allies, however, and the pivotal is whether Japan "would be willing to fight for Taiwan" and the America "to deploy a significant amount of force to protect Japan" [2]. (Of secondary importance: if Korean shipyards would support the war effort without getting involved in the war per se, Lend-Lease style.)
China will have some tricks the US has not seen yet, and the US may have some tricks China has not seen. A wonder-weapon may decide several engagements.
I think the US' best chance is to gain allies. If China takes Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia are next. China is attacking their traditional allies, including Vietnamese vessels. How bad do you have to be at diplomacy to force the US and Vietnam to consider common interests? Imagine a joint Australian-Japanese task force saving a Vietnamese fishing ship from Chinese Coast Guard, and working for days to save the badly damaged vessel and get it back to port.
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