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It's Now Cheaper to Lease a Tesla Model 3 Than a Toyota Camry (insideevs.com) similar stories update story
1 points by ripjaygn | karma 602 | avg karma 3.1 2024-06-27 14:15:43 | hide | past | favorite | 129 comments



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Instead of slashing the sale price, incentivizing leases seems to be the go to for now in the EV market. You can only kick the can so much -- 2024 December will be a glorious time to buy vehicles.

I don't know much about lease structures - why December? Is that unrelated to the lease, and just to get end of year sales numbers up?

A lot of lease special deals are during the holiday season, so you have a lot of leases ending around that time. (We leased our Tesla last December just before the $7500 tax credit expired.)

With the gas savings we're paying about $200/month for our Tesla 3. Our only regret was not leasing the Polestar 2 instead.


Leases right now are assuming much higher residuals for EV's than for ICE cars which is where much of the difference is coming from. It's hard to say whether that will turn out to be true or not, but if the manufacturer/dealer is willing to take that risk it might be a good idea to take them up on it.

I wonder if that has downstream upward pressure on used prices.

I know it's leasing, not owning. Given current track record, a minimally maintained 2025 Toyota Camry will probably outlast Musk. Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair. My local mechanics can probably rebuild a Camry in their sleep with parts readily available.

> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair.

Long, long term this should work out in the favor of EVs. They have way less parts and are mechanically much simpler.

Right now, however, the market saturation, second hand parts market, repair shop density, etc means it's way more expensive to get an EV fixed.

I do wonder when this will flip. Maybe sometime around 2035?


Well, the reduced business case for EV maintenance might actually mean it's harder to get / more specialized? I don't know - markets are weird.

[removed]

My Model3 is 6 years now, and has lost about 10% range. The car doesn't suddenly become useless either. I expect to keep the same car + battery for at least 20 years without replacing it.

> 2 or 3 battery replacements would be a reasonable guess in that time frame.

It absolutely would not. "0 battery replacements" is the correct number in 9 years.


> 2 or 3 battery replacements would be a reasonable guess in that time frame

There are reports of people getting > 600,000 miles out of a Tesla battery. The only vehicle where you're likely to need regular battery replacements on is the Nissan Leaf or it's sister the Renault Zoe.


If this were true it would be bad. Luckily it's mostly myth and rumor that doesn't actually line up with reality. The reason leasing cost is so low is that these vehicles and their batteries tend to be decent shape at the end of the lease and still have a good resell value. And they don't cause any issues in between.

With modern vehicles, the battery can actually be expected to outlast the vehicle. Many EVs sold 10 years ago still have their original batteries. They are fine and really good value if you can get a second hand one.

Battery replacements have mostly proven a myth for EVs. Of course they sometimes happen, especially with older vehicles with primitive battery management (e.g. no cooling). But most EVs ever sold still drive around with their original batteries.

Modern battery chemistries are actually even more durable. 3000 charging cycles is pretty standard these days. With a 300 mile range, that's 900000 miles. Most ICE cars don't make it half way that before ending up in the scrap yard. And that's usually after years of expensive repairs, inefficiently running engines, and going through lots of replacement parts. 3000 cycles is just the threshold where you can reasonably expect the battery to still hold > 80% of it's charge. It's not like it will stop working. Maybe 60% is still good enough. Some battery chemistries do way better than 3000 cycles of course. There has been talk of million mile batteries for some years now.


I believe the Tesla has a longer warranty which could help With the repair cost difference.

Plus no oil changes.


The Tesla Model 3 beat the Camry on total cost of ownership even in 2020 when the Model 3 was was considerably more expensive to buy or lease, mostly due to its cheaper maintenance costs. A Camry has >10X as many moving parts as a Tesla. The Tesla's maintenance cost per moving part is higher than the Camry's, but it has such an advantage in terms of number of moving parts that it's maintenance costs are a lot lower.

> The Tesla Model 3 beat the Camry on total cost of ownership

It's a 6 years old car (and most likely 4 or 5 years old given the delivery stats)... there are camrys from the last century still on the road with 500k+ miles on them.

When a tesla passes 300k miles it's news worthy, not because of reliability, just because they haven't been around for long https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-p...


At 6 years old you've already hit ~3/4 of the TCO of the vehicle.

> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair.

You have to do regular service on an ICE car and repair or replace things like the timing belt and hoses etc.

Teslas have the cheapest 10 year maintenance costs according to Consumer Reports, beating out Toyota.

https://insideevs.com/news/717341/tesla-cheapest-repair-main...


I don't understand how they have 10 year TCO when 3 and Y are less than that. If they (Consumer Reports) extrapolate based on first 5 year data, then it's not correct.

> Also, a Camry is substantially cheaper to maintain and repair.

I wouldn't say this is a given. We've had a handful of small issues in 100k miles on our early-production 3 that I doubt a Camry would have had, but parts have been surprisingly cheap ($89 for a 12v battery direct from Tesla SC was cheaper than I could get one at Autozone, for example). I doubt I'll ever replace brakes, I'll never have to replace a timing belt, and battery pack coolant is supposedly lifetime unlike the coolant on the Camry.


I think the higher maintenance costs would be on the Camry due to more moving parts, but not sure. Maybe some data would be good.

The auto market comes in waves. Not that long ago supply was thin and dealers were adding big markups to the cars that were available. Now many dealers are backed into a position to practically beg you to take cars off the lot. Show up with cash and play hardball. It’s a buyers market.

Show up with no cash and a good credit score and you will get an even better deal. There's a lot of profit in financing and you can often pay off the car after 90 days with no penalty.

Guess that depends where you are, as that is not the case where I'm at. When we were car shopping recently multiple dealers tried a 20% markup, that was an immediate walk away for me. Inventory still seems thin as well.

The local dealers don't have any Priuses in stock. Maybe they're just begging to take ICE cars?

The comparison isn't exactly fair. I love my Tesla and won't go back but if I'm not mistaken when leasing other brands you can buyback the car at the end of the term which isn't the case when leasing a Tesla.

For my Mazda I got a fair-market estimate price at the time of lease signing. Tesla doesn't allow you to buy a used Model 3? If so, why is it they won't let you buy your used model 3?

I think I read they expect to want the cars back to feed their robo taxi dreams.

That may all be a huge swindle. This person seems to be tracking it well:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1379452303317610497.html

"The Robotaxi Repo Theory: Tesla overstated S/X sales in 2018 using new lease accounting methods, however this led to large 1Q19 writeoff. To avoid further writeoffs, TSLA declares cars appreciating assets in 2Q19, allowing collateralized borrowing to be considered sales."


The cheap leases for EV's from other brands ($250/month for a Hyundai EV6 is a steal) rely on high residuals. So even if you can buy the vehicle back at the end of the lease there's a good chance you won't want to.

With the exorbitant cost of changing out the batteries once they crap out, unless you planned to replace the car anyway by that point, it seems like leasing EVs would be the ideal solution. Drive it for the lease period, then when the time comes for the batteries to get replaced, someone else is footing that ~20k bill.

Far more likely the battery outlasts the car than the rest of the car outlasts the battery.

I've owned an EV for 7 years, ignored the recommendations (I charge to 100%, use fast chargers, etc) and the degradation is like 5-10% over those 7 years.

I think most EVs are more likely to be totaled by a crash than have their batteries replaced due to wear or defect.


Oh believe me it will be the case. EV technology is moving so fast and as a result ev depreciation is so high they will be glad to sell you the car after two to three years, even if the contract does not currently provide for it.

Perhaps they do not want to put it in the contract now because they have some increasingly desperate robotaxi dreams, but it is clear to me that the robotaxi aint happening with the current hardware, and in a couple of years even elon will have to admit that.


> EV technology is moving so fast and as a result ev depreciation is so high they will be glad to sell you the car after two to three years

Doesn’t this imply even-faster falling prices for ICE vehicles? We’re nowhere close to the Norwegian death spiral [1], but at 7.3% of sales growing at 2.3% YoY from a 1% base [2] were within 20 years of 50% fleet penetration, which implies some gas cars being bought today will never be resold.

[1] https://electrek.co/2023/10/20/cratering-motor-fuel-sales-in...

[2] https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and...


Why do people think model 3 should be more expensive than a Camry?

They are not even in the same class of vehicles, model 3 is closer to a Toyota Corolla than a Camry.


Batteries are expensive. And Teslas are expensive. I guess the 3 is a couple generations old, though? Is that why it's cheaper? My friend got a model Y recently

The 3 just got a refresh a few months ago.

Model 3 is a Cushman with doors.

But it IS more expensive as someone quotes above:

When purchasing, the restyled mid-size Camry hybrid is still more affordable than the Model 3, with a base MSRP of $29,804, whereas the Tesla’s entry-level sedan retails for $40,380 (including destination) and doesn’t qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit.

This leasing thing is either accounting acrobatics or high residual value or both.


It's both, but who cares? The lease makes it eligible for the $7500 credit due to weird rules, and a high residual makes up for the rest.

But it's Tesla taking the risk with that high residual, not you.


Only if you don't keep the car at the end of the lease, ofc.

At $300 a month, you'd have to keep the $40,000 car for >11 years for it to be cheaper to buy than to lease.

(this weirdness is due to the fact you don't get the $7500 if buying this particular Model 3)


... if you want to keep the car after the lease is over ...

Makes sense for essentially overpriced e-waste. Extreme hybrids or GTFO. Im talking gennys or low cc choked to all hell for emissions, hell drop a goldwing engine in it. I want my 2500+ mile per tank utility vehicle, preferably made by a company with real experience... like Honda, or Toyota.

> I want my 2500+ mile per tank utility vehicle, preferably made by a company with real experience... like Honda, or Toyota.

What do you mean? I had a Honda and it didn't quite get to 2500 miles per tank, so I don't know how much experience they have doing that.


Why stop at 2500 miles? Why not go for 10,000mi per tank? Why not 1,000,000mi per tank?

I mean if we're just going to live in fantasy world why have a tank that needs to be refilled at all? Just have infinite energy in the car.


You all laugh, but small engine supported hybrid van with 3 gas tanks can achieve this. Arm chair engineers.

You can get about 50 MPG in any sedan simply by going 50 MPH on the interstate (tongue in cheek)

Unfortunately mileage and emissions trade off with each other. You can get better mpg without a cat iirc

Toyota does make a plug-in Prius now


I’d recommend doing a Tesla test drive. I did it for giggles and immediately bought one.

Im actually a big truck person but I put my identity on pause (so to speak) because I loved the car so much.

Everyone who knows me can’t seem to process that I don’t have a truck.

(Also the test drive was very low key. Schedule online, Just greet the guy, and he sends you off on your own for a drive. No pressure when you come back either.)


Silly question but if you're okay with the low ride height and small cargo capacity of a sedan, what is it you like about trucks?

Sometimes it's just a vibe - doesn't necessarily need to be practical.

I live in a rural area. It's 95% insecurity and 5% usefulness. Other countries workers can erect skyscrapers, build houses, and fix the heater just fine without these behemoths. Are American workers so much worse that they need all that extra space? The answer is no. It's about being a REAL man. Are you driving a reasonable car that gets good gas mileage? What are you, a pussy? These things aren't often said, but they are heavily implied. And I live in a relatively liberal rural area.

> Other countries

Which countries? Because I suspect you’ll find a ratio that relates pay and productivity to the number of trips they’re required to take.


Sounds like confirmation bias. I see people pulling heavy trailers all the time. In fact, I don't think I actually know anyone with a large truck that doesn't haul at least sometimes.

I see people pulling trailers all time as well. It is still far less than 10% of the trucks I see on the road.

Well yeah they aren't pulling trailers to the grocery store. I'm not saying that nobody drives a truck just for vanity, but if you want to see people use trucks for their intended purpose, then you have to put yourself in a context where you'll actually be able to see that. Casual observation around town won't tell you whether someone periodically hauls a cargo trailer, boat, camper, farm equipment, or any number of other things.

The majority of people I know who daily drive trucks have never once pulled a trailer in their life. I get more usage from my tow hitch on a midsize SUV than most of those truck owners do. Hell I used the hitch on my Focus more than most truck owners I know.

Are you suggesting a high percentage of truck owners actually do tow? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 50% of US truck owners have towed anything in the last 10 years.


Individual experiences may vary. I live in Northern Michigan where people are frequently towing things related to summer activities. If you live in a city or a rural community where people can't even afford to have things to tow, then you might not see it as much. People who work on farms or do construction may also use their trucks a lot but not necessarily a lot of heavy towing.

You seriously do think that most truck owners own boats or campers or bought them because they do construction or farm work or are just too poor to buy a boat at the moment huh?

Go walk around in Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Oklahoma City, Atlanta, St Lous, Denver, Kansas City, or loads of other cities like that. Prepare to have your eyes opened to excessive truck culture. Go see all the pavement princesses modified to excessive levels that make them impractical for towing or doing farm or construction work. Compare the trucks actually used for work compared to their pristine fancy paint jobs and spotless beds and geometry that would cause the suspension to snap if you tried pulling even a couple thousand pounds behind it.

According to some surveys something like 63% of truck drivers tow rarely to never.

https://www.axios.com/ford-pickup-trucks-history

Easily half of the trucks on the road today will never have towed anything in their lives. And chances are a lot will see payloads in their beds that would have comfortably fit in a minivan or hatchback.

I don't mind someone driving a big truck if its actually something they use as a truck. I'm contemplating getting a truck and camper trailer eventually myself. I get annoyed seeing all the wastefulness of all these trucks that aren't used as trucks. That wastefulness does affect me. It makes the air I breathe worse, it makes the streets my children play around less safe, it makes the parking situation worse, it makes traffic worse, it makes everything worse for zero damn reason other than "truck culture".


I grew up shoveling manure out of the back of a truck. It's called washing your car. Maybe someday we'll get a proper survey that doesn't mix infrequent use with never and learn something closer to the truth. I suspect usage is contextual in predictable ways.

I see many trucks like this drive around on the highways near me every night. Think they're shoveling manure out of something like this? Think they're towing much with a vehicle like that?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/27/b6/3d/27b63db4bd163bc3b1f4...

You know its a work truck when they have painted light-up rims.

https://live.staticflickr.com/1972/45705140252_d81ef13ce7.jp...

I'm sure that finance worker in Downtown Dallas going back to their quarter acre lot in Frisco sure shovels a ton of manure. I bet that software developer in Austin going back to his apartment spends a lot of time towing a horse trailer.

Seriously man. Leave the rural bubble for a bit and see what its like in a Southern US city. See all the trucks owned by people parking in cramped downtown parking garages. See all the office parking garages filled to the brim with excessive trucks. Then tell me they're mostly used by people working in trades with a straight face.


I feel like you are assuming too much about people and it seems obvious that you are exaggerating your experiences with the lifted truck thing, so I think we should just agree to disagree on the small differences in opinion we have. A SUV isn't much better for the environment and safety than a truck btw.

I feel like you haven't spent much time in a Southern city if you think trucks like the two example here are rare. I see them all the time. I'll see at least one every time I go out, normally I'll see multiple.

I feel you assume too much about truck owners and apply your experiences in rural Michigan to all other truck owners. You think people like my examples of Frisco office workers having trucks are rare? You ever spend time in Frisco TX? Think they're all farmers on their zero lot line McMansions? Yet somehow practically every home has a truck out front, often multiple. That's just one town in the metroplex. And that's just the metroplex. We haven't even begun talking about Houston or San Antonio or Austin or even left Texas.

Go take a look around Charles Schab's campus in Westlake. You'll find the parking there loaded with tons of big pickup trucks. How many farmers do you think Charles Schwab hires? Do the same with JPMorgan's new offices in Plano. I guess nearly a third of their workforce are farmers or plumbers or painters or something.

> A SUV isn't much better for the environment and safety than a truck btw.

Agreed. Which is why my midsize SUV stays in the driveway unless I actually need the space or towing while my family normally takes the much smaller other car that fits us just right. I fully agree people also often oversize their car purchase with massive SUVs that don't really do much more than what a midsize sedan could do with their usage.


Yeah, I haven't spent a ton of time in the deep South, so maybe you are right that the situation is worse than I realize. The local culture in Northern Michigan has some significant differences from other parts of America and it's possible I've forgotten some of the odd quirks of broader American culture since leaving Denver and Detroit. Good luck out there man.

And just understand, I'm not arguing every truck owner is some insecure person making up for it by buying a massively oversized truck. I definitely agree there's lots of people out there that do use their trucks as trucks, even if not all the time. I bet it does make sense to have a truck or at least a competent crossover in rural Michigan. Lots of people I know who live up there do need some clearance and get a lot of value out of all wheel drive.

But there are tons of people out there who are entirely office workers living in a suburban home or apartment who don't have boats or campers or whatever and own one or more trucks. Tons of them. You really notice the difference driving around in NY or Michigan or Illinois or whatever and then go to Texas or New Mexico or Georgia or similar. I just did a road trip from Texas to Montreal, so I got a decent snapshot of what highway populations look like across a lot of North America.


Agreed. Just visit your local truck stop, 24H diner, material/building supply store or cheap lunch spot at noon and you'll see plenty of big trucks, and guys who will probably be making a delivery later that day to your home.

What percentage of pickup truck drivers do you think actually frequent truck stops and 24hr diners? 90%? 50%? 10%?

How about all the spotless lifted pickup trucks in the parking garage in my suburban office parking garage owned by insurance salesmen and software developers? Think they go to truck stops and 24hr diners often? None of them are delivering anything to anyone's homes other than groceries from Whole Foods to their own suburban home.

Incredible to me so many people think the majority of truck owners work on a farm or a trade. Just look around. Take a peek in an office parking garage in Kansas City. Think all those people working in some healthcare insurance office are farmers or something?

Go someplace other than that 24hr diner or farmer supply store and notice all the trucks that obviously aren't work trucks.


> I live in a rural area. It's 95% insecurity and 5% usefulness.

Are you sure? Maybe you live in the south, which from my last visit was "lifted truck land"? I'm from a rural area that gets snow and I'd say the breakdown of insecurity vs usefulness is the exact opposite. No serious person lives in this area without a truck, or SUV capable of getting them around in the winter time and shlepping stuff to their home/farm/ranch (there's also a culture of self reliance). We also don't see lifted "shiny" trucks. Lifted? Sure. Shiny? That's for people "from away".


> I'm from a rural area that gets snow

Ah yes, because that's where 99% of truck owners in the US live.


I live in Massachusetts. I literally live on a mountain. My 2007 Honda Fit with snow tires handles any blizzard just fine. No truck needed.

My problem with the "truck as a vibe" concept is that it's also "inconveniencing other people as a vibe" too. I don't mind work trucks, but the lifted, massive, shiny emotional support truck is:

  * Blocking other drivers' view
  * Has a deadly amount of kinetic energy
  * Takes up tremendous amount of parking space
  * Has an outsize environmental footprint

> "inconveniencing other people as a vibe"

which of course is exactly the point for some people. "rolling coal" is admired by a significant minority of the truck culture.


>* Has a deadly amount of kinetic energy

Agree overall but electric cars/trucks are super heavy.


Great question. It’s not that I’m ok with that stuff it’s just that I didn’t want the fun to stop after the test drive.

It turns out being excited about driving is worth a whole lot to me. (It used to feel like a chore)

Also with the model y, It doesn’t look that high but it rides high enough to not bother me. I can get into the seat instead of get down into the seat.

And the hatchback and fold flat seats give a bit more cargo room than a sedan.


You want driving excitement, try an old manual transmission roadster with your ass mere inches from the pavement. Now that is driving excitement. Every truck I've been in feels like a space capsule. And it's about as easy to park one as a literal space capsule. I have no idea why people like trucks.

I've been in a Tesla and it is rather sterile, but fine. I can't say much more about them, honestly. Having one would be fine.


Not addressing OP in particular, but in the South, a truck is a cultural thing more than a need anymore. If your great grandfather, grandfather, and father all drove a truck...then you get used to that being what a vehicle is supposed to be. It doesn't matter than your grandfather was a farmer and you now live in a suburb and write JavaScript from home. It doesn't matter that it costs a fortune and has terrible gas mileage. It's part of your identity. Source: lots of conversations with friends and neighbors with giant trucks that have no need.

That and they're heavily marketed towards their target demographic now instead of being meant for work. It's like a designer handbag for men, except that handbags actually appreciate in value.

It's frustrating as I wouldn't mind a small cheap truck. They don't like making that anymore though....mostly just $70k-$100k monstrosities. There are exceptions, but nothing like the Chevy S-10 or Ford Rangers of old. A modern Ford Ranger is the size of the old F-150s.

The first thing I did when I moved to Texas was finance a RAM 1500. It is difficult to understate just how deeply the pickup truck is embedded into the Texan ethos.

I loved the plush ride and miss the extra space (but not enough to get a Model Y). The seat height was nice, but I don't miss it. I definitely don't miss the super low end tech that most trucks come with. In retrospect, I feel bad about my carbon footprint. The truck chugged gas, which I spent roughly $200/mo on.

Like OP, I test drove a Model 3 via Turo completely on a whim (I wonder what Teslas are about...) and immediately financed one. I immediately financed the refreshed Model 3 when it released also. Absolutely incredible cars.


truck is your identity?

truck yeah brother

At least he's honest about it.

I was exaggerating for effect but everyone who knows me actually seemed to think that. People can’t stop bringing it up. Kinda weird actually.

I guess the main truck things I liked:

I like feeling more like sitting in a regular chair. Low Cars feel like sleds to me.

I like the high ground clearance so I don’t worry about curbs and can park off-road if needed.

It’s nice to be able to throw things in the back. Kayaks, bikes, furniture.

They also hold their value really well.

And prior to 2020 trucks were pretty cheap compared to equivalent SUVS. I got a new 2017 tundra for around 30K.


Don’t know if you are an American, but it’s not unusual to see a scrotum decoration hanging from the tow hitch of a pickup. It’s absolutely an identity thing with some people.

I had one for a week while my car was in the shop. Can't say my experience was as positive as yours, but it gave me a newfound appreciation for my actual vehicle. The infotainment crashed twice and needed a hard reboot once. The latch got stuck during charging and I had to walk halfway across the lot to reset the unlatch procedure. The rear windscreen visibility went to 0 every time there was too much rain.

Same energy when I did a test drive for a Nissan Ariya. Was surprised (last time I test drove a car was 12 years ago when we bought our Sienna) - was a totally different experience.

We even took the car home and ensured it could park in our garage :)


No CarPlay/Android Auto, No Buy.

I had only used CarPlay once in a rental prior to buying my Tesla. I don't feel like the infotainment thing in my Y is missing anything, but I also don't really know what I am missing out on.

What about CarPlay/Android Auto are you concerned about losing? I'm not trying to convince you that you don't need it, I just honestly don't know what I'm missing.


How about all the apps that work with CarPlay (and have worked for years) that don't exist in Tesla's ecosystem.

Seeing as I have not used CarPlay, I am not sure what those apps are :). Which ones are most useful to you?

each of us has apps we like and Tesla only supports a few apps. Ex. I use YouTube music but tesla only supports Spotify and Apple Music.

Maps/directions are much better than Tesla's. You have voice interface. Music (Apple/Spotify/etc) is much nicer - though they do have Apple Music and Spotify apps, it's easier to just control through my phone.

Most people consider their phone their digital life, so having the car entertainment system get out of your way and just integrate the car with the phone seems more natural.


No physical controls/stalks, no buy.

Hot take: CarPlay is trash.

- If you don't have wireless CarPlay, you need to plug your phone in. CarPlay is super finicky about cables.

- If you do, you're at the mercy of the head unit not crapping out on you

- I've had CarPlay fail to update my GPS location multiple times, where unplugging and plugging back in is the only solution.


Never had trouble with CarPlay, cable or wireless in the last 5 years. It must be the car manufacturer and not CarPlay.

While true, it's not exactly a "fair" comparison given the federal subsidies involved.

> When purchasing, the restyled mid-size Camry hybrid is still more affordable than the Model 3, with a base MSRP of $29,804, whereas the Tesla’s entry-level sedan retails for $40,380 (including destination) and doesn’t qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit.

So as a United States taxpayer I say to Tesla Model 3 owners: You're welcome.


It's not at all fair, because even to this day the total subsidies given the gas powered vehicles is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than those given to electric vehicles.

The main difference is that the subsidies and expenditures on gas are given to oil companies while those for electric cars are given directly to the consumer.


Another interpretation is that the tax credit is being paid to the manufacturer, who charges a higher price in response to the subsidy.

If a manufacturer would maximize profits by selling a vehicle for X dollars, then they will sell their vehicle for X dollars regardless of a subsidy.

Certainly a subsidy makes a product more affordable and hence increases demand for that product, but a subsidy can never allow a manufacturer to charge more for a product than they otherwise would charge. A manufacturer will always charge the price that maximizes their profits and that price doesn't change because of a subsidy.


If something is supply constrained then a subsidy allows a price increase. If something is demand constrained then maximum profits occur with a lower price.

2022 was supply constrained. 2024 is not.


> but a subsidy can never allow a manufacturer to charge more for a product than they otherwise would charge

...right.

What is the impact on prices of Teslas when there are 100% tariffs and import bans on Chinese EVs? Do you think those tariffs makes Tesla prices go up or down?

Why do retailers offer coupons? How do they set their prices when coupons are "always available"?

I think you can't give me an consistent explanation for all of these. I can. Once you figure out if something is actually a tax or a subsidy, taxes make prices go up, and subsidies make prices go down. In my opinion, the surprising thing here is that because of the way it is implemented, such as the existence of vehicle tariffs on other EVs, limited number of vehicles it benefits, their price caps, and the conditions on local manufacturing, the federal EV tax credit is functionally an ordinary tax, and prices on all EVs - the cars that qualify for the benefit and those that do not - have risen. It is really a tax in disguise, on other vehicles, that transfers US tax dollars to US-centered auto manufacturers. And honestly why does that surprise you? Did you buy an overpriced Tesla or something?


>Do you think those tariffs makes Tesla prices go up or down?

It would certainly make the price of a Tesla go up.

>Why do retailers offer coupons?

The decrease in price results in an increase in demand for the product. This is very beneficial for manufacturers who need to keep the rate of production consistent all year long while demand for their product may fluctuate.

> How do they set their prices when coupons are "always available"?

The increase in demand from the decrease in price due to the coupon or subsidy balances out, so the price without the coupon/subsidy remains the same. The effect of the coupon/subsidy is strictly to increase the demand, it doesn't allow the manufacturer to charge a higher sticker price.

>and prices on all EVs - the cars that qualify for the benefit and those that do not - have risen

Except there's a way to test for this and it isn't consistent with your expectation. Tesla along with pretty much all car manufacturers charge the same amount for an EV in places that offer an incentive such as California versus places that don't, such as Texas. Based on your logic a Tesla should be more expensive in California, which offers a $7500 credit compared to Texas. But that's not the case.


> Tesla along with pretty much all car manufacturers charge the same amount for an EV in places that offer an incentive such as California

Did you do your research? Are you aware that the incentive in California has been suspended for a while now?

Regarding the coupon question... I'm sure you've heard of the phenomenon of raising a price, then offering a coupon. It's not just some brittle hallucination. It's just to say that it isn't so black and white. A coupon isn't a tax or a subsidy, it's a marketing gimmick.

Does any of this matter? If the BYD were sold in America for $10,000, is there any doubt that prices on other EVs would go down, beneficial for all Americans, including the ones affected by layoffs due to high interest rates responding to inflation... even if nobody bought the BYD?


Touché - So I say to purchasers of gas and oil: You're also welcome.

All that being said, I find these comparisons silly. Tesla is riding the hype machine, and discounting products like crazy to grab market share. Toyota is stable, mature and playing an entirely different strategy.


But that argument also doesn't hold since Tesla makes a significantly higher profit per vehicle than Toyota. Tesla's profit margins are about 12%, whereas Toyota's are about 5-7%.

You're right, maybe Tesla will be Apple (higher profit) whereas Toyota will be Android (higher volume).

>Wall Street expects automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits to be 15.2%, according to 20 analysts polled by Visible Alpha, down from 19% a year earlier and the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2017. *https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...


I am usually the first person to steer away from taking moral standpoints, but I don't support the culture of lithium mining, making children work just so I can have a shiny new car/phone/laptop whose battery will inevitably die in a couple of years effectively becoming junk that's thrown in a landfill.

China's near defacto monopoly on lithium batteries is also very concerning. Unfortunately we cannot eliminate it from our lives due to its' ubiquity and cost, but I'd rather not buy an electric car that supports this industry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9jscWk2DMg is a good watch on this topic.


What kind of mining do you support ?

The obvious foil to the lithium industry is the fossil fuel industry. Lithium mining isn't inherently bad, it's only bad in the case where children are being forced to work in the mines. Fossil fuels is an inherent negative due to its outsized environmental impact.

You're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.


A few things:

- I've had an electric car for 5 years now. My car has been significantly less maintenance than any I've owned. How is that throwing it away in a landfill? If you're concerned about waste, think about the amount of C02 emitted by a single gas car during the 100,000 miles I've driven it already.

- The US and Canada already has a nascent lithium mining and exploration industry, a few sites of which are already open or scheduled to soon, such as in Thacker Pass, Nevada or in Quebec. It's not our fault that a huge portion of the US government continues to ignore how valuable rare earth mining is to the next century ~ (Add other things like nuclear to the list too)


While the Model 3 may contain more lithium given larger batteries (but might not given different chemistry), the 2025 Camry is only offered as a hybrid (in the US) and also has lithium ion batteries.

https://www.toyota.com/camry/features/mpg_other_price/2555/2...


Elon is against heads up displays for some weird reason, and also CarPlay/android auto. Those are important features in 2024.

> Elon is against heads up displays for some weird reason

Cost. If you look at some recent changes - like taking out the signal stalks - it reeks of cost optimization. A heads up display in addition to the big iPad would cost more to manufacture.


It’s only cheaper if you own a single-family home, or otherwise have the unlikely luxury of access to an electric vehicle charger at your home or place of work. Renters will mostly have to stick with the Camry.

I'd rather have the Camry. Wake me when the model S becomes cheaper to lease than a Toyota Camry. Now we're talking.

As it should be, the Camry is a very reliable car that can be with you for 20 years and still be kicking. The only maintenance it usually requires is the basics, like oil and brake pads. That's not the case with Tesla.

It should be, but not for your stated reason. EVs require even less maintenance- the premium should be the penalty for still burning fossil fuels in 2024

> EVs require even less maintenance

I'm not discussing EV vs. ICE in general, but rather comparing the Camry to Tesla. I believe that maintenance will be cheaper for the Camry, although this will depend on many factors, and I could even be wrong. However, maintenance for Tesla wheels and tires is far more expensive than for those of a Camry. Additionally, the cost of replacing a Tesla battery is more expensive than the combined cost of a Camry's engine and transmission, which is the primary argument against ICE cars. I have never heard of anyone complaining about these issues with a Camry before let alone replacing them.

That’s for maintenance-wise, other categories also favor the Camry, such as reliability in extreme cold conditions, the availability of parts, and auto shops for repairs, as well as significantly better privacy, knowing that no Tesla employee is spying on my home while reviewing the car's cameras (1).

Personally, I would choose the Camry over a Tesla any day. However, this would not be the case against other cars, such as BMW, where the maintenance costs are far higher. .

(1) https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-workers-shared-sens...


Replacing batteries doesn't happen often at all - it's like replacing an engine on an ICE - I haven't had to do anything like that in decades (and I keep my cars for 10+ years).

I will give you that parts-availability for EVs are an issue (esp. Teslas = single supplier). Insurance replacement cost and coverage is also probably higher for a higher-end EV.

The cost of gas vs. charging can be significant though.


As someone who has been new car shopping for the first time recently, its absurd how much some of these cars are. A new prius at the top trim costs ~43k, whereas a lexus actually costs less than 42k for a higher level trim

The Prius gets ~60mpg whereas the Lexus gets ~42mpg, so it seems like it would pay for itself a bit more over time if you drove it into the ground, but at that price, it makes no sense to stick with the lower build quality cars.


I imagine maintenance is cheaper on the Prius.

> whereas a lexus actually costs less than 42k for a higher level trim

Which one?


Love my truck but it is not my daily driver. Only drive it when I need to carry stuff in the bed. I have driven several electric cars. They are fun to drive but they don't seem ready for prime time yet. Once charging gets consolidated and more widely available I will look at them again.

It should be cheaper. Toyota is a much better car.

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