I don't know, I think the opening of the Civil War could be replayed quite accurately in the modern-day America. The opening shots of the Civil War weren't Lincoln's troops firing on civilians in a random Rebel town, it was Rebel troops firing on a Union fortification which refused to evacuate.
I think this is exactly what would happen in the modern day.
"Proper" referendums don't include shooting. Certainly, violence against a military installation will be met with overwhelming violence in return. That's why we'll hold a referendum: to avoid all that. If the soldiers want to hang out in their base that happens to be stuck in the middle of Lesser Midwesternia, that's cool. If they get bored and go home, that will be cool too.
I think this is exactly what would happen in the modern day.
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