The predictable monetary supply of Bitcoin is precisely why it is doomed to fail. Specifically, Bitcoin's deflationary nature.
In the best case scenario, Bitcoin will continue to experience unstable boom-bust cycles as prices will rise when people start hoarding their coins, then crash again when people dump their Bitcoin en masse once prices hit a high enough peak. This is great for speculators, terrible for everyone else.
In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin prices drop to $0 when everyone gives up using it. Which leads to the second problem: Bitcoin never really solved the chicken-and-egg problem. Not enough merchants accept Bitcoin for customers to bother with yet another currency, and not enough customers use bitcoins for merchants to deal with yet another currency. Services like Coinbase are merely abstractions over the USD - too few merchants deal solely in Bitcoin, and for good reason.
The things that make deflation bad for traditional currencies don't necessarily apply to bitcoin. There are good arguments on both sides and no consensus like you seem to imply. This debate has been done to death so I'll defer to https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Deflationary_spiral.
Bitcoin is not ready for for pure bitcoin dealings, Coinbase is on the right track for now we need services that are basically abstractions over another currency.
Pure bitcoins dealing will start getting adopted by the average folk first once the availability and ease of use problem is solved.
"The predictable monetary supply of Bitcoin is precisely why it is doomed to fail"
Sorry but you're backwards there chief.
"Specifically, Bitcoin's deflationary nature."
Of course you don't elaborate. That's ok because another guy will say inflationary then another guy will point out how all fiat is always in a state of either or.
"In the best case scenario, Bitcoin will continue to experience unstable boom-bust cycles "
No, that's the US dollar. As it's economy experiences a crash every six years on average. Little overdue at the moment.
"prices will rise when people start hoarding their coins"
That's always been what's going on.
"then crash again when people dump their Bitcoin en masse once prices hit a high enough peak."
Oh so there's a collective price point where everyone sells is there? That would be a first for any object in the history of the world. You realize that right?
"This is great for speculators, terrible for everyone else."
Yes that is what we saw in 2014 with the introduction of futures markets and are continuing to see. Watch the Chinese exchange. All gamblers with it at the moment making money on the downside.
"In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin prices drop to $0" yes captain obvious, that would be, but people won't give up using it because of it's utility.
"Bitcoin never really solved the chicken-and-egg problem. Not enough merchants accept Bitcoin for customers to bother with yet another currency, and not enough customers use bitcoins for merchants to deal with yet another currency."
Brawker, Purse etc for those that don't. But THOUSANDS now do. Newegg, tigerdirect, anything you need or want can now be had with btc. Bitpay makes it super easy for stores to accept coins.
Lots of talking out your butt. You have no data on how many people use it and for a merchant to accept it, like say Paypal, it's nothing but a good thing because of almost nonexistent transactions costs and elimination of chargebacks.
In the best case scenario, Bitcoin will continue to experience unstable boom-bust cycles as prices will rise when people start hoarding their coins, then crash again when people dump their Bitcoin en masse once prices hit a high enough peak. This is great for speculators, terrible for everyone else.
In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin prices drop to $0 when everyone gives up using it. Which leads to the second problem: Bitcoin never really solved the chicken-and-egg problem. Not enough merchants accept Bitcoin for customers to bother with yet another currency, and not enough customers use bitcoins for merchants to deal with yet another currency. Services like Coinbase are merely abstractions over the USD - too few merchants deal solely in Bitcoin, and for good reason.
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