Let's say the number is in the same range today (I don't see a reason why the number of Windows developers would have drastically grown or dropped since then), and let's add a couple more million Windows developers who do not use .NET. Total, 10 million Windows developers. Let us say, half of all Windows use git for source control (non-git usage is still huge in private corporations). I am probably underestimating here. So, very roughly, that's about 5 million git users on windows.
Let us also estimate that 90% of all Windows users never use a CLI. I have personally met very few Windows developers who do. Windows is very much anti-CLI. So that's 4.5 million git users who do not use a CLI and 0.5 million Windows users who do.
For Mac OS X, we know that there were 1.2 million apps last year, let's say that there are, I don't know, three developers per app on average:
Since Apple steers developers to use Xcode and Xcode has git integration, let's say half of all Apple-based developers do not use the git CLI regularly. We shall assume that Apple-based developers are a bit more familiar with a CLI than Windows users. So this is 1.5 million Apple users who use git without a CLI and 1.5 million who do. That's a total so far of 2 million CLI git users and 6.5 non-CLI git users.
Finally, let us say that nearly every git user has a github account. Let's say, 25% of them don't. Github has reported 3 million users in 2013:
Exponential growth suggests it should be around 5 or 6 million now, and if 25% of all git users do not use github, that roughly matches my estimates for how many of them are spread out across Windows and Apple.
So yeah. I am very confident that most git users do not use the CLI, at least not regularly. I am almost certain that of those git users who primarily use a git frontend, they only ever drop down into the command line when they need to do something very specific and they google that specific thing and copy around the magic git incantation that they find.
I know you can wiggle these numbers around a lot. But I also think we forget how big the non-HN developer crowd is, and how large the number is of people who are averse to a CLI.
Microsoft estimates tha there are 8 million .NET users in 2012:
http://www.quora.com/How-many-NET-developers-are-there
Let's say the number is in the same range today (I don't see a reason why the number of Windows developers would have drastically grown or dropped since then), and let's add a couple more million Windows developers who do not use .NET. Total, 10 million Windows developers. Let us say, half of all Windows use git for source control (non-git usage is still huge in private corporations). I am probably underestimating here. So, very roughly, that's about 5 million git users on windows.
Let us also estimate that 90% of all Windows users never use a CLI. I have personally met very few Windows developers who do. Windows is very much anti-CLI. So that's 4.5 million git users who do not use a CLI and 0.5 million Windows users who do.
For Mac OS X, we know that there were 1.2 million apps last year, let's say that there are, I don't know, three developers per app on average:
http://techcrunch.com/2014/06/02/itunes-app-store-now-has-1-...
Since Apple steers developers to use Xcode and Xcode has git integration, let's say half of all Apple-based developers do not use the git CLI regularly. We shall assume that Apple-based developers are a bit more familiar with a CLI than Windows users. So this is 1.5 million Apple users who use git without a CLI and 1.5 million who do. That's a total so far of 2 million CLI git users and 6.5 non-CLI git users.
Finally, let us say that nearly every git user has a github account. Let's say, 25% of them don't. Github has reported 3 million users in 2013:
http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/04/11/code-sharing-site-g...
http://redmonk.com/dberkholz/2013/01/21/github-will-hit-5-mi...
Exponential growth suggests it should be around 5 or 6 million now, and if 25% of all git users do not use github, that roughly matches my estimates for how many of them are spread out across Windows and Apple.
So yeah. I am very confident that most git users do not use the CLI, at least not regularly. I am almost certain that of those git users who primarily use a git frontend, they only ever drop down into the command line when they need to do something very specific and they google that specific thing and copy around the magic git incantation that they find.
I know you can wiggle these numbers around a lot. But I also think we forget how big the non-HN developer crowd is, and how large the number is of people who are averse to a CLI.
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