Even if Obama believes this nonsense, he should still pardon him, if only to take a bit of wind out of Russia's sails. Snowden's impact on the US has been entirely 100% positive and he represents no threat whatsoever to national security. I find it a lot more conscionable than pardoning some well connected extortionist or whoever they usually pardon at the end of their term.
If Obama were to pardon Snowden, and the US reinstate his passport, I can't see Putin keeping him in Russia. Why would he do that? As long as Snowden is a thorn in the NSA's side, Putin is clearly glad to have him, but a pardon would neutralize the benefit. It's not even like he could trade Snowden for some Russian spies; what sense would that make? The US intelligence community does not think of Snowden as someone they want back on American soil, except maybe to kill him.
I found an interesting Assange interview on the Morales incident [0]. The whole thing is worth reading, but let me just quote one bit:
Portugal, Spain and France closed their airspace. Some other things happened. Some preemptive extradition requests were sent out, for example, to Iceland, which we got hold of and published. So there was — the U.S. was pressuring countries where flights might go through or land or refuel. And as a result of that operation, then it became clear that in fact it was too dangerous to — at that moment, at least, to take any flight out of Moscow. And this is what then led to his eventual asylum. It wasn’t just the removal of the passport, which removed his ability to use commercial flights. It was that the U.S. was closing airspace and acting in a manner where you would have to assume that they — you know, if a flight went past the United States — not over U.S. territory, but past the United States — there might be some kind of interdiction.
Assange goes on to suggest that Russia had their hands forced by the US Government's willingness to pull strings to catch Snowden, and by the willingness of Western Europe -- France, Portugal, and Spain, at least -- to roll over. This put Putin in the position of either granting Snowden's asylum request or looking like another US patsy. Well, the last thing Putin would ever do is look weak. (I suspect Putin is not really too unhappy to make sure Snowden stays alive.)
Anyway, although Putin's cooperation is clearly necessary, the primary force keeping Snowden in Russia is, and has always been, the US Government.
Presidential pardons stick because of double jeopardy. If Snowden is pardoned for the crimes for which he has been indicted, he cannot be indicted for them again.
If Obama pardoned Snowden on his last day in office (as I hope he does), Snowden could come home.
If murder is the concern, Snowden will not be safe anywhere. Do you think that the CIA doesn't have people in Moscow?
There's a good chance Snowden will be extradited by Russia soon, to bolster Trump in his standoff with U.S. intelligence. Then the whole pardon debate is moot.
My guess is that Putin would be happy to have Snowden break the agreement, as long as he doesn't go to the press and take credit for it. Putin's government has been working constantly to undermine America's foreign influence, and these leaks go a long way towards doing that.
He was investigated for 2 years and is still accused to this day for Russian collusion. Pardoning either Snowden, who is in Russia right now, and Assange, who is accused of being a co-conspirator in the Russia collusion accusations, would be like throwing gasoline on that fire. I don't see how he could do it without alienating most of his establishment support, which he still needs after leaving office.
I wonder what is the future for him. I guess when the next president comes in office, and those leak story blow over, maybe he'll get pardoned, or maybe he'll stay in Russia for the rest of his life. The sure thing is that nobody will forget him.
Although I wonder if it can be proven or argued (or not) that Snowden is not working with Russia. Maybe in the realm of intelligence nothing can really be proven, and it doesn't really mean anything for me to trust my gut about Snowden not working against the US. Are there any articles debunking those theories ?
What is the 'value' of Snowden to the US? In order to exchange him and trade for something worthwhile he would need to have a value. I suggest that the value of Snowden to the US is negative. Not even 0, but massively massively negative.
Putin would love Snowden to get on a plane, land on US soil and be met with the full SWAT squad and cuffed face down on the tarmac infront of the worlds media. They could even have the helicopters following the car down the motorway; cue logo, theme tune and hours back in America clock for the 24 hour rolling news coverage. We can then have a sham show trial and be sentenced to 1000 years or the death penalty for treason.
Every document being dragged through the courts, or even better a super secret trial would be one of the biggest propaganda wins for the anti-US part of the world, including but not limited to Russia, in the entire history of mankind.
The US doesn't want Snowden back, the whole saga is long forgotten and rehashing it is nothing but bad news. No President with a brain wants the problem, Snowden is literally a third rail, instant death to America.
I expect Snowden is well looked after by the FSB and kept safe, but not too comfortable in Russia.
The corrolary to your argument would seem to be that Obama is negotiating with Russia for Snowden's release. It strikes me as more likely that he is not. The whole issue is a domestic nightmare, having turned Obama from "good guy" to "bad guy" in the eyes of many (notably the primary demographic of this site).
He doesn't want a trial for this guy. He just wants the issue to go away. The security damage has already been done, if you believe the bit about Snowden having distribute d encrypted copies of the documents, etc...
ot to a point, I will be real curious if Time gives serious consideration to Snowden as its man of the year.... let alone the boys in Sweden.
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I said awhile back, Snowden fate is purely up to Putin, disclaim it all he wants but if Putin found advantage to shipping him home it would happen. Russia is far worse than the US when it comes to rights, but the US deserves the embarrassment it receives from this to include the obvious snub of the White House by Putin. The people who should be most embarrassed of their behavior are the press, but they are so in bed with politics now that reporting like that occurred with the Washington Post in the seventies cannot occur today.
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