I have been dollar cost averaging straight into VTSAX for the past couple of years and have seen something like a 40% annualized return lol. That probably won't continue, but what a ride.
Curious then if you are simply not investing it at all?
Average returns over 10 years for something like VTSAX (total stock market index) is 13%, granted the last 10 years has been a bull market. 13% of $4M is $520k even half that is $260k before taxes which I think is comfortable to live on, exception of HCOL areas.
VSTAX's 10 year return since 2010 was 11.29% annually (191% total return).
That means Universa could've lost around 23% every year until 2020, gain 4144% in 6 months and still beat the index (according to my naive arithmetic at least).
(0.77^10) * 4244% = 311% -> 211% total return
My personal overall rate of return is 13% over the last 20 years, without any algorithmic bullshit. Just 80% in a basket of dollar cost averaged mutual funds and 20% in cash strategically invested when opportunity arises.
Iirc, last year was around 14% in the mutual funds, with the “fun money” mostly cash.
I’ve always been very skeptical of people making claims on annualized returns. I’ve known far too many people who have one good week and annualized it, as if that week will be every week.
The GPT space seems new enough where anything could happen to blow this up in a second. I wish them the best, but hope they don’t go spending as if this is revenue they can count on forever.
Even if your premise is right, your timing has to be right too. The SP500 has doubled since 2014 which lines up with the traditional 7% per year. Meanwhile they're paying 12% per year to short, so their approach is a compounded 22% worse[1] than VTSAX-and-chill (before even considering capital risk). This is still gambling, just not in the usual direction.
Important to remember that they’re averaging over a decade to get that annual return figure. I still hear 10% thrown around as a rough estimate (if you believe anyone is capable of making such a prediction) — though Jack Boggle has been cautioning that we should expect much lower returns over the next twenty years (more like 3-4%).
past performance is no guarantee if future returns; you're not wrong there.
but will vending machines + their associated maintenance hours & overhead + supplies of goods to be sold return you more, or less, than VTI?
hell, with interests rates being what they are, but 100k into high interest savings, bonds, certificate accounts, etc. and catch an easy 4.5% ($4500/mo.) with little to no risk, overhead, or random youth stealing your stuff.
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