I'd say his word is more convincing than the exact opposite position as similarly-baselessly-claimed claimed by Elon, who similarly has a conflict of interest incentivizing him to be dishonest, as well as a vindictive personality driving him towards the same
Disagree, Elon has high credibility IMO, certainly higher than an anonymous source with incentives to slander. Not saying he is perfect but given the scrutiny he is under and how much he is “in the arena” pushing the envelope.
Elon is furthermore a software engineer (he wrote ALOT of code at zip2 & paypal) so your argument falls flat in that regard.
This is sort of exactly the thing I mean. Even if you don't agree with me that Elon is a serial liar, I don't think you can dispute a more generous characterization of him as having a long history of optimistically interpreting the facts in his favor. Why on earth would you take this claim at face value?
A lie requires the company to believe it is not true and yet say it anyway. Elon is pretty delusional (at least that he often has crazily optimistic ideas about what is and is not feasible); he’s also paranoid about AI becoming self-aware and destroying humanity; it’s reasonable to suggest that Elon believed his own projection, here.
On sincerity there's no harm in taking what he says at face value. Despite his intelligence I don't think someone as gaffe prone as Elon would be capable of fooling everyone.
It's hard for some to see this point of view unfortunately, no matter how you try it. Elon has been intentionally skirting and blurring the line between lying and marketing for a while now.
Why do you think Elon Musk is obviously different? He's definitely had many events where he has lied about aspects of his business. You could argue that it doesn't matter now that he has built something real, but that's down to a lot of luck, not ethical backbone.
My impression of Elon is that he would appreciate this straightforward feedback that is consistent with his no bs persona. I wonder if he has different evidence than what was presented to him ?
If he had only said it once, sure. But Elon has repeatedly, year after year made the same claim only for it to turn out false. So either he's lying knowing full well it won't come to fruition, or he's incapable of accurately assessing progress. I strongly suspect the former, especially given his relationship with the truth on other things, but the latter makes him just as unreliable source of information.
That is a remarkable, some might say delusional, level of generosity of spirit to demonstrate towards a pathological liar.
I suspect the actual problem is that Elon is a sociopath who simply does not care about honesty in any fashion and has become powerful and wealthy enough that he no longer needs to mask.
Whatever you think of Elon up until this point, I don't see how you can find him reliable/trustworthy. He specifically said that @elonjet was ok and then reversed course on that.
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