Yes, sometimes China reports that is capable to build 5-7nm but those claims are a bit controversial, maybe they are capable to build few of them but not as a large scale like ASML machines can do.
Intel is installing high-NA lithography tools from ASML in their new fabs and should be able to manufacture 3nm chips soon. Unfortunately they’ll certainly reserve 100% of that capacity for themselves.
Yes there is whole part of equation that has nothing to do with ASML. But the point, to over simplify things a lot was that without ASML there are currently zero chance you could get leading edge node working. But even with it you have barely started.
As someone else mentioned in the other thread, it's a bit odd that they're aiming for 5nm production at this fab in 2024 because 3nm should be ready to go by then. You'd sorta think that since they're already breaking ground on their 3nm fab in Taiwan that any other new builds would be 3nm as well.
Most vendors can do 3nm, but probably not at production scale other than ASML.
28nm is very worrying from a NatSec standpoint though - way more than leading edge nodes - as that enough to produce a Sandy Bridge or Maxwell type architecture, which meets the needs for most American defense applications (eg. drones, precision missiles, C-RAM, etc)
Russia manufactures their Elbrus-8s architecture using 28nm lithography as well, and that's the backbone for most of their newer precision, electronics, and avionics weapons systems.
SMIC is already at 14nm, and ASML is allowed to continue to sell equipment for this process. The more advanced process nodes have several drawbacks; the domestic market could likely adjust to 14nm long-term.
The MIPS processor was copied for production in China (illicitly, until fully licensed), as was the DEC Alpha. There is significant processor design knowledge, and ample ability to copy any new designs produced by ARM-UK, even if they have to be scaled up to 14nm for domestic production.
Oddly enough, I learned recently that Russia prefers SPARC (known as Elbrus).
To produce 3nm and 5nm, you need to order fabs from ASML who has an enormous backlog..
On the other hand, 22nm and 28nm are almost 10 year old technologies and they are still used in cars, so much so that the industry is begging car manufacturers to get to newer nodes [1].
And yet they have already said there is nowhere else to go with this 40nm process. They'd need to port it to a newer node and that's a huge job which may not happen.
By 2025 they might figure out newer processes than 14nm, but even Intel and Global Foundries has hit a wall at 14nm. Samsung, TSMC and IBM are the only companies with productive sub-14nm fabs.
how does that matter? SMIC had the 7nm news recently, not sure about that but even if it is 14nm, can't they throw money on the problem and get something to start with?
they don't have to achieve A100 levels in the first go, even Rpi level chips should be enough to give them experience
The problem is you need to be able to produce it in volume. The original projected 10nm is better than TSMC 7nm, that is assuming the 2019 10nm is still the same, which rumoured is not. Will be up against TSMC 7nm+, the next generation of 7nm.
Let's just assume they are both equal in absolute terms. By Late 2019, Intel would have barely launched 10nm and possibly shipping in 30 - 50M quantity ( And I think even that is an optimistic number ). TSMC wold have shipped more than 300M 7nm across their entire 7nm generation.
And TSMC has 5nm ready in 2020. I don't think Intel will have their EUV 7nm ready even in 2021.
Combined with the fact there is exactly only ONE, one EUV equipment maker on the market, ASML. And they have limited capacity in producing these ASML machine. As far as I am aware all of the 2018 and 2019 capacity are already locked to Samsung and TSMC.
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