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elevaet · 2023-01-09 23:56:05

Why 5-10 years? Hype cycle, or do you think there will be changes in the tech that could make it useful to these institutions at that point?

maym86 | karma 1351 | avg karma 3.49 · | 2018-06-25 03:18:49

For technology that is obselete in 5 years.

ttt3ts | karma 297 | avg karma 2.41 · | 2023-12-29 10:05:18

5 years?! You think the enterprise hardware hype will last that long? When it slows companies will look at other less valuable markets.

Unless something fundamentally changes with the capabilities of produced tech I think demand will be saturated before 5 years.

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mehulkar | karma 1404 | avg karma 6.1 · | 2012-05-12 06:35:02+00:00

What piece of technology will stay relevant `5-10 years out`?!?

BatFastard | karma 1786 | avg karma 1.96 · | 2017-05-20 18:45:02+00:00

5 years out is not that hard, since it is basically which technologies that are either just out, or coming out soon will be successful. 10 years is more challenging, 20 impossible.

mcmillion | karma 204 | avg karma 2.12 · | 2014-12-16 19:45:31+00:00

And in 5-10 years, we'll be able to use it.

timbit42 | karma 1404 | avg karma 0.61 · | 2023-02-04 08:50:47

Think what this tech will be like in another 10 years.

dmurray | karma 9140 | avg karma 3.17 · | 2020-10-11 16:53:10+00:00

Or just with another 5 years of improving this technology.

inteleng | karma 46 | avg karma 0.33 · | 2018-06-24 16:43:43+00:00

I mean it might be completely obsolete in five years. It has caused a great deal of innovation, even if much of that doesn't come to fruition.

utopcell | karma 1697 | avg karma 2.06 · | 2023-10-04 15:50:37

Five years ? Why would someone want to experience hardware advances in large steps instead of continuously ?

jodrellblank | karma 12920 | avg karma 1.96 · | 2013-11-04 20:17:26+00:00

Amazing technology in due in 3-5 years? Probably not.

naravara | karma 3005 | avg karma 2.08 · | 2020-08-04 20:23:06

Good point. I still think 5 years is a realistic time-horizon for how long before they start phasing Intel stuff out, but that could just be like that Bill Gates quote about how people tend to way overestimate how much progress will be made a year from now and way underestimate how much things will change 10 years from now.

np_tedious | karma 1068 | avg karma 2.46 · | 2019-08-04 16:53:41+00:00

I get that. I mean even the idea. Say in 5 years this is far more mature and stable, what use cases do you see it filling? Would they include production applications?

rmason | karma 43950 | avg karma 5.15 · | 2009-10-28 23:04:56+00:00

All I know is that even the experts will be surprised. In tech it's hard to predict six months from now let alone five years.

rsynnott | karma 18312 | avg karma 2.1 · | 2023-07-03 15:16:10

10-20 years as a prediction in tech, though, generally means "shrug who knows maybe never". Historically, predictions that far ahead are virtually useless.

LtWorf | karma 1639 | avg karma 1.22 · | 2022-10-22 01:31:43

Sure. But what will be their model in 5-10 years?

overgard | karma 10309 | avg karma 4.9 · | 2014-01-04 08:20:40+00:00

For many popular technologies I think 5 years is pretty extreme. Most of them haven't even existed that long.

yieldcrv | karma 3087 | avg karma 0.64 · | 2023-08-31 17:05:00

Its probably the perfect time to be talking about it giving how fast the advancements occur

They probably wont be using that model for another year, while people will be using that website for many years

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baddox | karma 23383 | avg karma 2.25 · | 2016-02-29 19:19:19+00:00

Call me a technology optimist. I'd bet 10 years.

Isinlor | karma 2103 | avg karma 2.77 · | 2021-03-24 14:05:53

Good catch. Still, I would say that it is the 10 last years that matter, because that's when people started to take it really seriously.

It's also interesting to think that we may have a lot of ideas like that. They are just waiting patiently for compute in some small communities.

And the compute quite consistently grows exponentially. We will make bigger absolute increases in compute in next 5 years than we did ever before.

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